Galaxy Research Cuts Odds as Senate Clock Runs Down Galaxy Research has reduced its probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% just three weeks ago. The downgra
Galaxy Research has reduced its probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% just three weeks ago. The downgrade, issued by Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), is driven by a tightening Senate calendar rather than any weakening of political support for the bill itself.
Thorn wrote that Galaxy is "reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago." He added that "the absence of news is itself the news."
The bill, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 ever since. No floor date has been set. No motion to proceed has been scheduled.
Polymarket traders now assign only a 41% chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year as legislative momentum weakens.
Galaxy noted that competition for floor time intensified after President Donald Trump linked his approval of a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act. Limited floor time is also competing with other unfinished business, including FISA legislation and the annual National Defense Authorization Act.
As the Senate remains adjourned until July 13, the available legislative window before the August recess has narrowed further.Without a scheduling announcement, the path shifts to September, and September runs into midterm-election dynamics that make scheduling controversial votes difficult.
Thorn wrote that at least two Republican no votes, Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, are expected, which means Democratic crossover support is not optional.The bill still needs at least seven Democratic votes to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold, with key supporters making their backing conditional on unresolved issues.
Thorn noted that "a scheduling announcement in the next two weeks would likely push us back toward 60% or higher," while "continued silence into mid-July would push us lower."His outlook would improve if Senate committees publicly agreed on combined legislative text, negotiators resolved outstanding ethics and Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act issues, and Senate leadership committed floor time in July.
The CLARITY Act, which creates a framework separating digital assets into digital asset securities and digital commodities, assigns SEC oversight to the first category and gives the CFTC authority over the second.If approved, it would become the second major crypto bill to become law, joining last year's GENIUS Act.
Sources:Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds as Senate Clock Runs Down, crypto.newsGalaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds To 50-50, Bitcoin MagazineClarity Act Clears U.S. Senate Committee, CoinDesk
