Steil’s bill would ban lawmakers from trading political prediction contracts. Violators face fines, forfeitures, and restrictions taking effect later. White House officials remain exempt as p
Members of Congress could soon face new limits on political prediction market trading under legislation introduced by Republican Representative Bryan Steil of Wisconsin. The proposal would prevent lawmakers and their immediate family members from profiting from contracts tied to elections, government actions, and public policy decisions.
Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18 as concerns continue to grow over the use of prediction markets by public officials. The bill would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from participating in political event contracts that could create potential conflicts of interest.
Under the proposal, violators would face a civil penalty of at least $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater. Additionally, any profits earned from those trades would be forfeited. The restrictions would take effect 180 days after the bill becomes law.
The legislation does not prohibit lawmakers from using prediction market platforms entirely. Instead, it targets wagers connected to political outcomes, government policies, and official actions.
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Steil said the measure is intended to strengthen public trust and ensure lawmakers do not benefit from information unavailable to the public. Supporters argue that elected officials may have access to sensitive information that could influence prediction market outcomes.
The proposal follows growing debate over the role of prediction markets and whether participants with privileged information could gain an unfair advantage. That discussion gained momentum after federal prosecutors accused a U.S. soldier of earning more than $400,000 through trades linked to expectations surrounding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Several proposals have emerged in Congress this year as lawmakers seek greater oversight of prediction markets. Some focus on transparency requirements, while others call for broader restrictions on government officials.
While the bill applies to Congress and their families, it does not cover White House officials. Current U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance would remain exempt under the proposal.
The exemption has attracted attention because other measures take a broader approach. The bipartisan PREDICT Act would extend similar restrictions to senior executive branch officials and their families.
Meanwhile, the proposal arrives as regulators continue debating oversight of prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission argues that event contracts qualify as financial products, while states and market operators remain divided on how the industry should be regulated.
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The post Congress Faces New Restrictions on Political Prediction Market Trading appeared first on 36Crypto.
