Crude oil prices fell Friday as increased shipping flows through key Middle East routes eased immediate supply concerns. Brent and West Texas Intermediate remained on track for monthly gains
Crude oil prices fell Friday as increased shipping flows through key Middle East routes eased immediate supply concerns. Brent and West Texas Intermediate remained on track for monthly gains of about 20%, however, as geopolitical risk continued to support the market.
Brent crude futures fell $1.03, or 1.2%, to $88 a barrel by 2:15 a.m. GMT on July 31. U.S. WTI crude dropped $1.50, or 1.8%, to $82.09 a barrel.
The decline followed signs that more oil was moving through major shipping routes despite the continuing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Increased tanker traffic reduced fears of an immediate supply shock, but high insurance and freight costs showed that the risk had not disappeared.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the outlook because it normally carries about one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Traders are also watching the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait after new threats to Saudi shipping routes.
Falling U.S. Inventories Support Oil PricesA sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories helped limit Friday’s losses.
Commercial crude stockpiles fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week ended July 24, reaching 404.5 million barrels. The drop was much larger than analysts expected and came as refineries increased processing.
Lower inventories suggest that the U.S. market remains tight even as international shipping conditions improve. That creates a mixed outlook: stronger supply flows are pulling prices lower, while reduced stockpiles and geopolitical tension continue to provide support.
OPEC+ will also return to focus this weekend. Seven members agreed to increase August production by 188,000 barrels per day as they gradually ease earlier voluntary cuts. The producers are scheduled to meet Aug. 2 to review market conditions, output compliance and compensation for past overproduction.
Brent Chart Points to $80.67 as Key SupportThe supplied Brent one-hour CFD chart, shared by ZenitTrade, showed price near $87.35 on July 30. The Elliott Wave setup suggests Brent could first rebound toward the low-to-mid-$90 range before beginning another decline.
Brent Wave Outlook․ Source: ZenitTrade (@zenit_trade) on X
That path remains a forecast rather than a confirmed move. Brent must hold above $80.67 to keep the rebound scenario alive. A clear break below that level would support the analyst’s call for a deeper decline, while a move above $102 would invalidate the broader bearish structure.
WTI Needs to Reclaim $87The WTI daily cash chart shared by GDXTrader showed oil near $84.67, above the 50-day exponential moving average at $81.53 and the 200-day average at $77.87.
However, buyers failed to push the market above the previous two daily highs. The latest candle had a small body, showing that neither buyers nor sellers had firm control.
The chart places $87 as the main resistance level. A sustained move above it would improve the short-term outlook. Failure to reclaim $87 could send WTI back toward the 50-day average, while a deeper decline would place the area near $78 in focus.
