CryptoQuant Spots Bullish Bitcoin Signals

Has bitcoin already reached the peak of this cycle, or is the market about to surprise investors once again? While volatility feeds fears and corrections multiply, on-chain data offers a nuanced reading of the situation. CryptoQuant indicators reveal the evolution of investors’ profits, while recent purchases by large whales raise questions about a possible return of confidence. Between encouraging technical signals and macroeconomic uncertainties, the market today sends contradictory messages.

In brief

• The 365-day PnL index continues its decline, a typical behavior of low-price buying phases.
• The decline of this indicator suggests that the peak of this Bitcoin cycle is still ahead of us.
• Large wallets massively resume activity to defend the key support of $60,000.
• Skeptics fear a liquidity trap, recalling that the indicator already produced a false signal in 2022.

CryptoQuant’s PnL Index

The flagship crypto price is currently hovering around $64,550, a drop of about 50 % from its record peak of $126,000 in October 2025. However, according to the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, the fundamental network structure does not indicate an end of cycle at all.

The 365-day PnL index signal continues to trend downwards, a movement historically associated with accumulation phases rather than market peaks. Thus, the company points out that this trend usually manifests when the market is preparing for a deep recovery, “suggesting that the current BTC cycle still has to reach its peak”.

This PnL Index synthesizes several major sector measures to define the overall cycle dynamics :

• The market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) ;
• The net unrealized profit and loss indicator (NUPL) ;
• The activity ratio between long-term and short-term holders.

This technical synthesis is measured against its own 365-day moving average. Currently, the relative weakness of this index shows that investors are actively accumulating their tokens at low prices, theoretically excluding the speculative overheating phase characteristic of traditional bull market endings.

The return of bullish signals and strategic activity of whales

On May 12, CryptoQuant’s bull-bear indicator flipped to green, marking its first official bullish signal since March 2023. Although industry experts remind us that no technical tool is infallible, this trend change immediately coincided with a notable return of buying pressure from large wallets, who see the current price drop as a major buying opportunity at current levels.

This accumulation dynamic materialized very concretely in early June when a whale took advantage of a low point on June 5, while bitcoin was hovering around $59,734, to massively acquire BTC for $98.9 million. Indeed, this large investor made a quick profit of $3.5 million in just forty-eight hours during the subsequent technical rebound. This type of operation demonstrates that institutional players continue to actively defend the major psychological support of $60,000, validating the hypothesis of an active accumulation phase.

The macroeconomic confrontation

However, this thesis is challenged by the skepticism of investors who see the 50% drop since the October 2025 record as an indication that further gains are no longer possible. According to this persistent view, the temporary rebounds observed would only be exit liquidity allowing large actors to liquidate their positions before a bigger fall. Moreover, CryptoQuant’s history itself advises caution. The same indicator had issued a false positive signal in 2022, proving that on-chain data describe the internal network structure but do not guarantee future price movements.

Such correlation with traditional markets remains decisive and impossible to anticipate alone. Macroeconomic forces, such as Fed decisions on interest rates, international tariff announcements, or global geopolitical tensions, exert major influence on buying behavior. Although CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju urged holders to hold firm by stating on social networks that “bullish opium for bitcoin is coming in the next” months, investors’ real behavior remains closely dependent on the available global liquidity.

If bitcoin’s technical structure argues for cycle continuity, its conclusion will depend on a global macroeconomic stabilization. On-chain signals offer an encouraging accumulation perspective, but they must be validated by a calming of external economic uncertainties to generate a true bullish rally. For investors, the key therefore lies in careful observation of current supports while keeping a vigilant eye on future Fed monetary decisions that will seal this cycle’s fate.