What to Know Egrag Crypto estimates XRP could trade above $7 if market capitalization reaches $500 billion, while slower escrow distributions limit supply. The analyst’s logarithmic chart pla
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has calculated that XRP could trade above $7 in 3 years under a $500 billion market capitalization. According to him, the estimate considers Ripple’s escrow distributions and their potential effect on XRP’s circulating supply.
XRP currently has approximately 62.74 billion tokens circulating, and a $500 billion market capitalization would produce an estimated price of $7.97. However, Ripple’s escrow distributions could increase the circulating supply, with Egrag Crypto using a net distribution pace of approximately 268 million XRP monthly.
Maintaining that rate through June 2029 would add approximately 9.1 billion XRP, raising the circulating supply to about 71.9 billion tokens. A $500 billion market capitalization divided by 71.9 billion XRP would produce $6.96, while smaller distributions could place XRP above $7. Egrag therefore established a range between $6.85 and $7.20, with the upper estimate requiring lower net distributions than projected.
Egrag Crypto supported the calculation with a logarithmic chart tracking XRP’s market capitalization through two-week candles. Two ascending yellow trendlines form a broad channel covering XRP’s valuation across several cryptocurrency market cycles.
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#XRP – What Does a $500B Market Cap Really Mean?
Let’s do the math – including ESCROW releases.
Current circulating supply: ~62.74B XRP
If we project Ripple’s recent net distribution pace of roughly 268M XRP/month through June 2029:
Additional supply: ~9.1B XRP
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) August 27, 2026
At the chart’s recorded point, XRP held a market capitalization of approximately $88.76 billion. Its latest two-week candle gained 42.71% and briefly lifted the valuation above $106 billion before sellers reduced those gains.
Additionally, XRP’s market capitalization remained above the major moving averages displayed on the chart. The upper trendline approaches the $400 billion to $500 billion region around the June 2029 projection.
Therefore, reaching $500 billion would place XRP near the upper boundary of the analyst’s long-term market structure. From $88.76 billion, XRP would require an approximately 5.6-fold increase to reach the projected $500 billion valuation. Meanwhile, the lower channel boundary points toward a smaller valuation, showing the broad range between potential market outcomes.
Ripple’s escrow system remains important because unlocked tokens do not automatically enter XRP’s circulating supply. Ripple can return unused XRP to escrow, retain tokens in controlled accounts, or distribute them through institutional arrangements.
Hence, a scheduled one billion-XRP unlock does not represent one billion tokens entering the open market immediately. Net distribution offers a clearer measurement because it tracks XRP moving beyond Ripple-controlled holdings.
Moreover, market capitalization represents the circulating supply multiplied by XRP’s prevailing price across cryptocurrency exchanges. It does not measure the exact amount of capital invested directly into the asset.
Egrag Crypto’s calculation places XRP above $7 when supply growth remains below the central projection through June 2029. Nevertheless, that outcome requires a $500 billion valuation and sufficient demand to absorb XRP entering circulation through escrow distributions.
Also Read: XRP Bulls Must Reclaim $1.54 to Regain Control, Analyst Reveals
The post Egrag Crypto: XRP to Hit Above $7 Based on Ripple Escrow Releases and This Market Cap Calculation appeared first on 36Crypto.
