As U.S. President Donald Trump's second term nears two years, Americans will vote in the midterm elections on Nov. 3. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in
As U.S. President Donald Trump's second term nears two years, Americans will vote in the midterm elections on Nov. 3. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested to determine the 120th Congress.
Crypto traders are keenly watching these elections as the market is reeling from the industry's largest hack of $6.3 billion at Binance.
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The first and largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), was launched in 2009 and we have seen four midterms since then. BTC was barely a few dollars during the 2010 election but grew in later years.
Here is how the cryptocurrency reacted 30 days after these previous midterm elections:
Nov. 2, 2014: The midterm during Barack Obama's second term saw BTC rising from $330 on the election day to $375 a month later. Bitcoin wasn't a political issue back then and was recovering from the Mt. Gox collapse in early 2014.
Nov. 6, 2018: The midterm during Trump's term saw BTC tanking from $6,500 to $3,850 after a month. Bitcoin wasn't yet a major political issue and several initial coin offerings (ICOs) were facing regulatory pressure, leading to the slump.
Nov. 8, 2022: The midterm during Joe Biden's term saw BTC crashing from around $20,800 to nearly $17,000 a month later. Bitcoin was making news due to its volatile price action, frequent crypto shutdowns and bankruptcies, and regulatory battle with the administration. The immediate reason for the price crash was the collapse of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX.
Bitcoin price 30 days after each midterm election since 2014As the U.S. goes to another midterm, we asked crypto experts about the election's impact on the markets.
Stefan Muehlbauer is the head of U.S. government affairs at CertiK, a major crypto security firm. He told TheStreet Roundtable that though the election will matter for crypto, it won't affect every asset equally.
"Washington politics mostly comes down to two very different camps in the market: Bitcoin on one side, and tokens like XRP on the other."
Bitcoin's price movement depends on global economic currents such as interest rates, currency swings, and daily institutional investment flows. Who holds committee gavels in Congress doesn't matter to BTC, he stressed.
That's because Bitcoin is a commodity.
It's cryptocurrencies like XRP that are affected by who controls the Congress. The biggest question for these assets is whether Congress can ever pass a clear law deciding where the SEC’s authority ends and where commodities rules begin, Muehlbauer said.
Even if one party wins big, passing a major regulatory bill still takes 60 votes to clear the Senate. Turning temporary agency rules into permanent, black-letter law still requires a deal that both sides can live with, Muehlbauer concluded.
Mohammad Akhavannik is the managing director at Newton Foundation, the authorization layer for onchain transactions.
He told TheStreet Roundtable that crypto has become a partisan issue in the U.S. and it is going to hold the industry back long-term. He urged the industry to promote bipartisan solutions to further the "inherently neutral" blockchain technology, no matter who wins control of Congress in the midterms.
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