Key Findings Cryptocurrency holders anticipated 22% yearly gains compared to non-holders’ 7% projection in 2021 research Displaying Bitcoin’s trailing 12-month performance increased desired c
Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland demonstrates that exposing individuals to historical Bitcoin performance data can significantly alter their cryptocurrency investment preferences and purchasing behavior.
JUST IN: Fed study finds crypto investors swayed by returns, with beliefs diverging on risk; mention of Bitcoin’s past gains can lift both desired allocations and actual purchases. $BTCpic.twitter.com/CgQqKGMzPF
— Bpay News (@bpaynews) August 23, 2026
Released on July 14, 2026, the research was conducted by Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. The analysis examined repeated survey responses from as many as 25,000 American households during each survey cycle.
A randomized trial was conducted during the second quarter of 2025. Survey participants received information regarding Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index, GameStop stock, or inflation projections.
Participants who viewed Bitcoin’s prior 12-month gain of 14.3% raised their preferred cryptocurrency allocation by approximately 2 percentage points. This represented a 47% increase relative to the control group’s baseline desired allocation of 4.3%.
Tangible purchasing activity confirmed the shift. Genuine cryptocurrency acquisitions increased by roughly 2.5 percentage points among households exposed to Bitcoin performance metrics.
Prior to the trial, approximately 11% of survey respondents owned cryptocurrency. The study authors determined the information treatment elevated the probability of cryptocurrency purchase by roughly 23%.
The effect was most pronounced among individuals who cited insufficient information as their reason for avoiding crypto. Those who already held negative views about cryptocurrency as an investment demonstrated minimal behavioral changes.
The analysis revealed substantial disparities in expected returns between cryptocurrency holders and non-holders.
In 2021 survey data, cryptocurrency owners who provided projections anticipated average annual returns of 22%. Non-owners forecast merely 7%.
Both cohorts exhibited considerable uncertainty. Approximately 87% of non-holders reported they could not estimate expected returns. Among holders, 54% expressed similar uncertainty.
By 2025, expectations declined in both categories. Owners projected 13.8%, whereas non-owners anticipated 4.7%.
Expected returns emerged as a more powerful ownership predictor than demographic variables like age, income, gender, or total wealth. Every additional percentage point in expected returns correlated with a 0.8 percentage point rise in cryptocurrency ownership probability.
This distinguishes cryptocurrency from traditional stocks and bonds, where demographic characteristics typically explain ownership patterns more effectively than return expectations.
The study authors outlined a potential cycle whereby robust historical performance elevates future expectations, stimulates buying activity, and attracts additional investors.
“Positive returns attract new participants, which raises the price further,” the researchers noted. They characterized this as a theoretical bubble mechanism rather than a definitive forecast.
The research also examined whether Bitcoin price increases influenced household consumption decisions.
A doubling of Bitcoin’s value increased the probability that a household with complete cryptocurrency exposure would purchase a durable good by approximately 1.4 percentage points. This translates to roughly a 7% rise in the likelihood of such acquisitions. The impact was most significant for purchases like computers and major appliances.
The study found minimal impact on routine expenditures. The authors proposed that cryptocurrency gains might be perceived similarly to windfall income rather than permanent wealth increases.
The research indicates that cryptocurrency volatility may result partially from investor disagreement and information updating processes, beyond purely fundamental market factors.
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