NBC News, based on AP data, projects Byron Donalds as the winner of the Florida governor race against David Jolly. At 03:39 CET the gap stood at 118,749 votes, 50.1 to 48.6 percent, with 98.9
NBC News, based on AP data, projects Byron Donalds as the winner of the Florida governor race against David Jolly. At 03:48 CET the gap stood at 115,196 votes, 50.1 to 48.7 percent, with 98.1 percent counted. Two years ago, Donald Trump carried Florida by 13.1 points, and in 2022 Ron DeSantis won the governor's office by 19.4. A race this tight in Trump's home state is, in our reading, one of the clearest signals of the 2026 midterms so far, and Florida now gets a governor who wants a state Bitcoin reserve.
Florida governor race: the key facts
The order of the count explains why the lead has moved. Florida reports mail ballots and early voting first. Mail ballots ran 59 to 40 percent for Jolly, early in-person voting ran 50 to 49 for Jolly, and the Election Day ballots that follow ran 58 to 40 for Donalds. The western Panhandle, on Central Time, closed its polls an hour after the rest of the state, at 02:00 CET, so its Republican counties report late.
NBC News has projected the winner, and the table shows the counties still reporting.
County Counted Margin so far Votes still out (our estimate) Miami-Dade 95 % D+7.0 about 40,900 Broward 95 % D+32.1 about 34,500 Palm Beach 95 % D+12.3 about 29,700 Hillsborough 95 % D+11.4 about 26,800 Orange 95 % D+29.5 about 24,300 Pinellas 95 % D+4.4 about 21,100 Lee 95 % R+21.5 about 16,000 Brevard 95 % R+11.6 about 13,900 Polk 95 % R+5.5 about 13,200
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
In 2024, Trump won Florida with 6,110,125 votes to 4,683,038 for Kamala Harris. The gap between the two major candidates now sits about 11.7 points closer to Democrats. 12 of the 12 largest counties that have nearly finished counting moved in that direction.
Source: AP via NBC News, Florida Division of Elections
County
Trump vs Harris 2024
Donalds vs Jolly 2026
Votes counted
Miami-Dade
R+11.4
D+7.0
777,597
Broward
D+17.0
D+32.1
655,198
Palm Beach
D+0.8
D+12.3
564,233
Hillsborough
R+3.1
D+11.4
509,531
Orange
D+13.6
D+29.5
462,554
Pinellas
R+5.2
D+4.4
400,211
Duval
R+1.5
D+10.8
355,356
Lee
R+28.4
R+21.5
303,591
The biggest story is Miami-Dade, which in 2024 voted Republican for president for the first time since 1988 (R+11.4). It now stands at D+7.0. Osceola, with its large Puerto Rican community, went from R+1.5 to D+17.8. Palm Beach County, home to Mar-a-Lago, went from D+0.8 to D+12.3. These comparisons set a governor's race against a presidential race, so part of the shift reflects the candidates and lower midterm turnout. The direction is still consistent across the state.
The preliminary Florida exit poll points to the same voters. Trump's approval stands at 43 percent, disapproval at 56. Cuban American voters still lean Donalds 54 to 45, while Puerto Ricans back Jolly 69 to 29 and other Hispanic voters 60 to 39. For comparison, an American Electorate poll in 2024 had Trump winning Florida's Latinos 56 to 43. These are surveys, not counted votes, and the two polls use different methods.
If the first unofficial returns show a margin of 0.5 percent or less, Florida law requires a machine recount, ordered by the Secretary of State for a statewide race. At the current count, that line is about 40,820 votes. If the machine recount then shows 0.25 percent or less, about 20,410 votes, a manual recount of over- and undervotes follows across the state, unless there are too few of them to change the result.
The trailing candidate can waive the recount in writing. First unofficial returns are due by noon on the fourth day after the election, Saturday 7 November. After a recount, the second set is due by 3 p.m. on the ninth day, Thursday 12 November. Official county returns are due by noon on Monday 16 November, and the state Elections Canvassing Commission certifies on Tuesday 17 November.
For crypto, the two candidates are not equally visible. Donalds, a Trump-backed US representative who raised more than $110 million, has made Bitcoin part of his profile. He told Bitcoin.com News in October: "we actually have proposals to create a strategic reserve in Florida." He has also backed the CLARITY Act and rejects a central bank digital currency. He did not lay out how a state would buy Bitcoin, so a reserve remains a proposal, and a legislature would have to pass it.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the party as Trump rose, built his campaign around property insurance and living costs. The result matters beyond Florida either way: the state is the third largest in the US by population, and a swing of this size could shape how both parties plan for 2028. The next market structure law is written in Congress, so for that question the Senate seat on the same ballot counts. Where it stands is in our CLARITY Act explainer.
On Polymarket, Donalds stood at 100.0 percent at 03:48 CET, with $6.2 million traded, up from about 79 percent in October. That shows what the market expects and is no forecast from us. If you trade around a night like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
Besides Florida, these are the closest statewide races with at least 20 percent counted at 03:48 CET. Early margins can still move a lot. Every call and the full Senate table are in our midterm election results live ticker, and what the outcome means for oil and gold is in our Iran analysis.
State Office Leader Margin Counted New Hampshire Governor Ayotte (Rep) 1.0 pts 44 % Ohio Senate Brown (Dem) 1.9 pts 63 % Tennessee Governor Green (Dem) 1.9 pts 53 % Mississippi Senate Hyde-Smith (Rep) 2.8 pts 38 % Louisiana Senate Letlow (Rep) 4.0 pts 22 % South Carolina Governor Wilson (Rep) 4.3 pts 83 % South Carolina Senate Andrews (Dem) 4.3 pts 83 %
