From ₦768 to ₦1329/dollar: what the big numbers behind Cardoso’s 3 years at CBN really say

On September 15, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu nominated Olayemi Cardoso as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with his official tenure starting on October 5, 2023. Cardoso’s leadership can be divided into distinct phases.

Initially, the CBN focused on rebuilding trust in its monetary policies. In 2024, aggressive tightening of the monetary policy rate was implemented, followed by a consolidation period in 2025, leading to cautious rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 as inflation eased.

Key achievements during Cardoso’s tenure include an increase in the monetary policy rate from 18.75% to 26.5% and a significant rise in Nigeria’s gross external reserves from about $33.6 billion in October 2023 to roughly $54.61 billion by September 14, 2026.

The bank also cleared over $7 billion in verified foreign exchange obligations, stabilising the currency. Additionally, new capital requirements of up to ₦500 billion led 32 banks to meet these standards by March 2026, indicating a stronger banking sector.

However, the fate of the naira, Nigeria’s currency, tells a more complex story. When Cardoso was nominated for the job, the official/interbank exchange rate was ₦768.73 to the dollar. Fast forward to September 15, 2026, and the rate had soared to about ₦1,329.15 per dollar.

While it’s important to approach these figures with caution, given that Nigeria’s foreign exchange market and pricing mechanisms changed significantly during this period, it is clear that the naira has depreciated considerably against the dollar under Cardoso’s watch.

Similar read: President Tinubu nominates Olayemi Cardoso as the 11th CBN Governor

This three-year journey highlights both the challenges and changes faced by Nigeria’s economy during Cardoso’s leadership at the CBN, marking a significant chapter in the country’s financial history.

Year 1: The CBN resets the system

In his first year as Governor, Cardoso focused on revitalising the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which was burdened with over $7 billion in foreign exchange (FX) claims. Upon review, he identified about $2.4 billion of these claims as invalid due to poor documentation and irregularities, prompting a Deloitte audit.

Cardoso aimed to shift the CBN away from the interventionist strategies of the previous administration. He emphasised returning the bank to its core functions, enhancing compliance, and reducing quasi-fiscal activities. His 10-point agenda included restoring monetary stability, strengthening governance, improving the payments system, expanding financial inclusion, and boosting FX liquidity.

A key policy change occurred in October 2023 when the CBN lifted restrictions on foreign currency access for importing 43 items, adopting a willing-buyer, willing-seller framework. This marked a move towards a unified foreign exchange market.

When Cardoso took office, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was at 18.75%. In February 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the MPR by 400 basis points to 22.75%. This began a series of hikes that brought the rate to 24.75% in March, 26.25% in May, 26.75% in July, and finally 27.25% in September. By November, the MPR reached 27.5%.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) described this 2024 tightening cycle as an 875-basis-point increase, aimed at fighting inflation and improving monetary policy effectiveness. This shift marked a significant change in the CBN’s approach, moving from quasi-fiscal measures to prioritising interest rates as the main tool to combat inflation, which was a pivotal moment for the bank and the economy.

Year 2: From emergency measures to market infrastructure

By the second year of its reform efforts, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) advanced beyond simply reacting to the foreign exchange (FX) crisis. It began to establish sustainable practices in the FX market, focusing on transparency and risk reduction.

In December 2024, the CBN launched the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) to make FX transactions clearer and safer. A month later, it introduced the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code, setting high standards for ethics and compliance among FX dealers to foster trust in the market. By early 2025, CBN Governor Cardoso announced significant progress in clearing the FX backlog, resolving verified claims while setting aside disputed ones for further evaluation.

Additionally, the CBN’s recapitalisation of banks was a critical move toward financial stability. In March 2024, new capital requirements were introduced, mandating ₦500 billion for international banks, ₦200 billion for national commercial banks, and lower amounts for others. Banks had until March 31, 2026, to comply, leading to increased financial activity. By March 27, 2026, Governor Cardoso reported that 32 banks had met these new requirements.

This was not just a banking exercise; it was a strategic initiative by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Governor Cardoso to strengthen Nigerian banks’ capital. The goal was to prepare them for economic shocks, enable larger loans, and support the ambition of building a $1 trillion economy. The CBN aimed to stabilise the financial sector and foster long-term growth.

In January 2025, the CBN launched two initiatives for Nigerians abroad. The Non-Resident Nigerian Ordinary Account allows expatriates to send money home, hold funds, and invest in Nigerian assets, providing a reliable financial management option. Additionally, in May, the CBN partnered with the Nigerian Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) to introduce the Non-Resident BVN platform, enabling Nigerians in the diaspora to obtain their Bank Verification Number (BVN) remotely, eliminating the need to return to Nigeria.

Also read: Nigeria records $947m remittance inflow in July, its highest ever

These policies are part of a broader strategy put forth by CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele to encourage more foreign currency to flow into Nigeria’s formal financial system. By making banking services more accessible to Nigerians abroad, the CBN is not only facilitating remittances but also welcoming investments that could benefit the Nigerian economy.

Year 3: The numbers finally start moving in the other direction

In the past three years, Nigeria’s financial landscape experienced a significant shift. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from a high of 27.5% in 2025 to 26.5% in February 2026. However, this MPR remains 7.75 percentage points above the 18.75% inherited by Governor Cardoso when he took office, indicating a cautious easing rather than a return to easy borrowing.

Regarding inflation, recent trends reveal a complex situation. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased its inflation measurement, which may make comparisons between older and newer data misleading. While headline inflation fell from 23.14% in August 2025 to 15.39% in August 2026, it only signifies a slower rate of increase, not falling prices. Food inflation remained high at 19.57%, underscoring ongoing pressures on households. Despite the decline, previous price hikes still impact Nigerians significantly.

Over the past three years, Nigeria’s gross external reserves have surged from about $33.6 billion in October 2023 to approximately $54.61 billion by September 2026, representing an impressive increase of around $21 billion. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) attributes this rise to improved foreign exchange markets and increased inflows from oil earnings, portfolio investments, and remittances, surpassing the CBN’s projection of $51.04 billion for 2026.

CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso

In his third year, Cardoso led a significant transformation of Nigeria’s payment system. In June 2026, the CBN launched the Payments System Vision 2028, a four-year plan designed to enhance the efficiency, security, and inclusiveness of the payments ecosystem. Key features include improved interoperability between payment platforms, new instant payment measures, and rigorous fraud monitoring.