Galaxy Research lowered its CLARITY Act passage estimate to 10% for 2026 due to Senate disputes and limited legislative time. The Senate will return September 14 for a short session, leaving
Galaxy Research has cut its estimate for CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 10%. The firm cited unresolved Senate disputes, limited time after recess, and stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC are moving on regulatory measures as the market structure bill remains pending in Washington.
https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/2088481472462102895?s=20According to Galaxy Research, Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not call a CLARITY Act vote before recess began August 7. He later noticed the first vote for when lawmakers return in mid-September.
However, Galaxy said the September session will last only about two to three weeks. The chamber reconvenes September 14 and plans to adjourn October 2. Galaxy identified several disputes that slowed negotiations.
These include ethics rules for government officials, pressure from community banks, and changes to developer protections. A bipartisan Senate group sent an ethics proposal to the White House on July 30. Galaxy said the White House has not publicly responded.
The SEC had planned two regulatory exemptions, according to Galaxy Research. Reg Crypto would create a pathway for public cryptoasset issuance. The Innovation Exemption would permit secondary trading of tokenized securities through decentralized finance.
However, the agency delayed both measures after earlier plans to publish them. Galaxy said the SEC may now move ahead as CLARITY Act negotiations remain unresolved. The firm also noted Commissioner Hester Peirce plans to leave the SEC in November.
Meanwhile, the CFTC has moved to defend its authority over prediction market contracts. This week, the agency issued an emergency order targeting New York Attorney General Letitia James' effort against Kalshi.
Galaxy said agency action could provide temporary regulatory coverage while Congress considers legislation. However, administrative measures lack the durability of a law passed by Congress.
The firm expects the SEC to publish Reg Crypto, the Innovation Exemption, or both within weeks or several months. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, authored the report. The CLARITY Act remains scheduled for Senate consideration after the August recess.
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