Key takeaways U.S. gasoline prices rise roughly 44% since February Trump defends higher fuel costs amid Iran conflict Brent oil remains above $110 despite diplomatic efforts U.S. gasoline pri
U.S. gasoline prices remained near $4.29 per gallon on Monday, October 26, as President Donald Trump defended the rising cost of fuel during the Iran war, calling it a small price to pay for preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
The national average has climbed from approximately $2.98 before the conflict began on February 28, according to AAA fuel-price data. That represents a roughly 44% increase, adding nearly $20 to the cost of filling a typical 15-gallon gasoline tank.
Speaking during an October 25 interview in Michigan, Trump acknowledged that the war would increase fuel costs but argued that preventing a nuclear-armed Iran justified the economic burden. He also predicted gasoline could eventually return to $1.85 per gallon once the conflict ends.
The comments come as earlier promises of cheaper gas face another test from persistently elevated energy prices.
Oil Prices Today: Brent Near $115 Despite Iran Peace EffortsCrude oil retreated on Monday following reports of diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran. However, international benchmarks remained substantially above $100 per barrel.
Brent crude traded around $114.82, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood near $101.19 during the morning session, according to Reuters.
The decline followed Friday's rally, when Brent settled at $116.72 after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure raised fresh concerns about supply disruptions.
The underlying problem remains the vulnerability of Middle Eastern energy supplies. Attacks on Saudi facilities and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz continue supporting a substantial geopolitical oil premium.
JPMorgan recently estimated Brent's fundamental value near $94 per barrel, suggesting that approximately $20 of its market price could reflect geopolitical uncertainty rather than underlying supply-and-demand conditions.
That estimate is not a guaranteed price target. An improvement in regional security could reduce the premium, but further attacks could sustain elevated crude prices.
Gas Prices Rise 44%, but Diesel Costs Hit Businesses HarderThe increase in gasoline prices is only part of the economic impact.
U.S. diesel prices reached approximately $6.35 per gallon on October 26, compared with $3.76 before the war. The roughly 69% increase places additional pressure on freight companies, farmers and businesses dependent on transportation.
Elevated diesel costs are especially important because higher transportation expenses can eventually reach consumers through food and merchandise prices.
Recent Saudi export disruptions have also exposed the vulnerability of alternative routes designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Although some Gulf oil exports have recovered, the refined-fuel shortage has persisted, limiting the benefit consumers receive when crude oil prices temporarily decline.
The energy shock also complicates the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook. Higher fuel and transportation costs can feed into broader prices, reinforcing concerns that oil-driven inflation may keep interest rates elevated.
Trump has repeatedly predicted that gasoline prices will decline sharply once the Iran conflict ends. However, the timing remains uncertain.
Oil markets are evaluating both potential diplomatic progress and continued risks to shipping routes, pipelines and production facilities.
Earlier recoveries in Gulf exports temporarily brought Brent below $100, demonstrating how quickly prices can react to improving supply conditions.
