Glassnode says Bitcoin is trading in "deep value" territory after spending five months below key valuation bands, but the on-chain analytics firm warns that the market's bottoming process is
Glassnode says Bitcoin is trading in "deep value" territory after spending five months below key valuation bands, but the on-chain analytics firm warns that the market's bottoming process is not yet complete. BTC traded near $63,792 at press time, well below the levels Glassnode considers fair value.
In a July 8 report titled "Bottom Building in Progress," Glassnode said Bitcoin remains in deep value after trading below both the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for five consecutive months. For related coverage, see Peter Schiff Predicts Bitcoin Fall to $75K.
TLDR: Key Points
The firm put the True Market Mean at $76.6k and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $72.2k. Bitcoin had only bounced from $58.3k to $64.4k and remained well below both reference levels. For related coverage, see Japan's BOJ Rate Hike May Impact Bitcoin Prices.
Glassnode valuation signal $76.6k True Market Mean, one of the key reference levels Glassnode says Bitcoin remains below during this incomplete bottom-building phase.In plain terms, "deep value" means that the average investor who bought Bitcoin in recent months is now underwater. It signals that the market has repriced below what on-chain models consider a fair aggregate cost basis, a condition historically associated with late-stage bear markets. For related coverage, see Bitcoin Whale Moves $920 Million; BTC Hits $120K.
The report also noted that long-term holder loss realization rose from 15% of total realized value in early February to 43% currently. Entity-adjusted long-term holder realized loss reached about $280M per day, the highest since December 2022, indicating that even patient holders are capitulating.
Despite the deep-value reading, Glassnode said several demand-side indicators remain too weak to confirm a full bottom. The 30-day average of daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF netflows peaked at -$193M per day in early June and had cooled to -$88.9M per day, but remained negative.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs -$88.9M/day 30-day average netflow remained below zero, reinforcing Glassnode's view that the market is still bottoming rather than fully recovered.Daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF trading volume ranged from $650M to $950M, about 80% below the October 2025 peak of $4.4B per day. This decline in ETF activity and broader exchange flows reflects waning institutional engagement during the drawdown.
The key distinction Glassnode draws is between valuation and confirmation. A deep-value reading means the asset is cheap relative to its own history. A confirmed bottom requires demand to return and sellers to exhaust, a process that typically unfolds over weeks or months rather than in a single event.
The options market echoes that caution. Glassnode noted the put/call ratio fell to 0.56, the lowest reading of 2026, suggesting less active hedging. However, the options surface still priced downside risk, and the firm said the bottoming process remained unconfirmed.
For short-term traders, the immediate signal to monitor is whether ETF netflows stabilize near zero or flip positive. A sustained return of institutional buying would mark the kind of demand-side confirmation Glassnode says is still missing. Previous periods of sustained ETF inflows preceded meaningful price recoveries.
For longer-term investors, the report frames the current environment as a zone where historical bottoms have formed, but with no guarantee of timing. The lower bear-market boundary near the Realized Price sits at $53k, meaning further downside remains possible if demand fails to materialize.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently reads 26, labeled "Fear," consistent with the cautious positioning Glassnode describes. Market participants who recall warnings of further Bitcoin declines will recognize the tension between value and momentum.
Glassnode's framework suggests that a confirmed recovery requires Bitcoin to reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $72.2k and for ETF flows to turn sustainably positive. Until then, the firm's assessment is that the bottom is building but not yet built.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
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