In our daily prediction yesterday, we predicted the gold price would first target $4,592 before reclaiming the $4,659, with $4,782 next if buyers held control. That setup played out, with gol
In our daily prediction yesterday, we predicted the gold price would first target $4,592 before reclaiming the $4,659, with $4,782 next if buyers held control. That setup played out, with gold reaching the $4,592 objective and recovering above $4,659.
Today, the gold price is trading at $4,610.17 as markets await Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Gold also climbed to its highest level since mid-May earlier this week, supported by a weaker dollar and renewed concerns over U.S. debt.
Markets are pricing a 74% chance of a December Fed rate hike, making Warsh’s comments crucial for the next move. So, after yesterday’s call worked, where could the gold price go today, and which levels should traders watch closely?
The biggest event for the gold price on August 28 is Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Investors want more clarity on how the Fed views inflation and future interest rates after July’s PCE price index remained at 3.7% year over year.
Markets are pricing only a 34% chance of a September rate increase but a 74% probability of a hike by December.
A hawkish message could support Treasury yields and the dollar, creating pressure on gold. Higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. A less aggressive tone could give the gold price room to continue higher, particularly after concerns over U.S. debt and long-term borrowing costs helped push the metal above $4,600.
The preliminary benchmark payroll revision, revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations will also be on traders’ radar. Consumer sentiment is forecast to remain at 51.0, with the prior inflation-expectations reading at 4.3%.
A separate development is coming from India, where gold and silver futures have fallen amid reports that the government is discussing a reduction in import duties.
The current duty is 15%, after being raised from 6% in May, and industry representatives have pushed for a return to 6%. No final decision has been announced.
The SilverTrade post goes further by arguing that lower duties could unlock pent-up Indian demand, particularly for silver. The confirmed data supports the possibility of a policy change, but the claims about critically low MCX inventories and an imminent global shortage remain unverified.
For gold, a duty cut could lower domestic prices and change buying conditions in one of the world’s largest bullion-importing markets.
Related Gold News: Analyst Predicts Another Big Move for Gold and Silver Prices
We had a look at the chart, and the broader structure remains positive after the price climbed from the July low near $3,970 to almost $4,700 in August. The move broke above the $4,100, $4,300, and $4,500 areas before sellers appeared below $4,700.
Source: Tradingview.comThe latest 4-hour candle shows the gold price at $4,609.86 after trading between $4,568.51 and $4,616.79. This puts $4,568-$4,570 at the first support area. Above, the recent peak near $4,670 is the immediate resistance.
Momentum has cooled. The Ultimate Oscillator reading is 47.62, below the neutral 50 mark but well above deeply oversold territory. That leaves room for either another push higher or a deeper retracement, making Warsh’s speech an important catalyst.
The bullish path begins if the gold price holds above $4,568 and breaks back through $4,617. A move above the recent $4,670 peak could put $4,700 in play.
The middle path would see the gold price remain between $4,568 and $4,670 as traders wait for Warsh’s policy comments. With the oscillator near neutral territory, consolidation after the August rally remains possible.
The bearish path comes into play if $4,568 breaks. That could send the gold price toward the psychological $4,500 level, followed by the prior support zone near $4,400. A hawkish message that strengthens the dollar and lifts Treasury yields could provide the pressure needed for that move.
Gold is trading around $4,610, with $4,700 as the key upside breakout level. A move above it could open the way toward $4,782, while a break below $4,568 could send gold toward $4,500 and potentially $4,420.
How will Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech affect goldA hawkish speech could strengthen the U.S. dollar and push Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on the gold price. A dovish message could weaken the dollar and support gold above $4,600.
Why is gold price rising despite expectations for a Fed rate hikeGold has received support from a weaker dollar, concerns over U.S. debt and demand for the metal amid geopolitical and financial uncertainty. However, a higher probability of Fed rate hikes remains a risk because higher yields can reduce gold’s appeal.
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The post Gold Price Prediction for Today (August 28) appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
