After weeks of selling pressure, gold buyers have stepped in near the $4,000 level, defending a zone that many traders view as make-or-break for the metal’s near-term direction. The question
After weeks of selling pressure, gold buyers have stepped in near the $4,000 level, defending a zone that many traders view as make-or-break for the metal’s near-term direction. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this support holds or if the bears still have more work to do.
The price action over the past few sessions shows that the market is coiling for a move. The descending trendline that has capped every rally since the swing high near $5,550 remains intact, and the structure of lower highs and lower lows continues to define the broader trend. Yet beneath the surface, there are signs that the selling pressure is starting to fade.
The 2‑month descending resistance line has been a tough barrier for gold. Every attempt to push higher has been met with fresh selling. But the falling wedge that has formed near the lows suggests that the balance of power may be changing.
Analyst Rashad Hajiyev sees this setup clearly. He expects gold to pop above that descending resistance in the near term, followed by one more sell-off to form a higher low before a sustained move toward $4,600. This sequence: breakout, retest, and continuation is the classic playbook for falling wedges, and it fits the current technical picture.
Gold has been defended by buyers around $4k. I believe that gold is going to pop above 2-month descending resistance anytime, followed by one more sell-off to form a higher low before it takes off higher towards $4.6k… pic.twitter.com/K8mNw0He2w
— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) July 18, 2026
What makes this potential breakout different from previous failed attempts is the momentum backdrop. The bearish momentum is clearly slowing.
While the market has not yet confirmed a bullish change of character, the price action near support is encouraging. The zone between $3,980 and $4,020 has been tested multiple times, and buyers have defended it each time.
For gold to break above that 2‑month resistance with conviction, it needs to close above the wedge boundary near $4,040–$4,070 and then hold that level on a retest.
A successful retest would shift the short-term structure from bearish to neutral and open the door for a move toward the next major resistance zone around $4,180–$4,220.
Not every rally is worth chasing. The most profitable trades often come from patience, waiting for the market to confirm its intent before committing capital.
For gold, that patience may be rewarded with one more dip that sets up a high-probability long entry.
The wedge pattern suggests a breakout is coming, but it does not guarantee the move will be straight up.
In fact, the most reliable setups often involve a false breakdown or a shakeout that clears out weak hands before the real move begins. Hajiyev’s outlook aligns with this thinking: he expects a pop above resistance followed by a sell-off that forms a higher low.
The reason this dip could be the entry you have been waiting for is simple: a higher low would be the first break in the sequence of lower lows that has defined the downtrend.
It would be the first sign that the bears are losing control and that gold is beginning to carve out a bottom.
Traders should watch the $4,000 level closely. A dip back into this zone after a breakout would offer a favorable risk-reward setup, with a clear stop-loss below the recent low near $3,980 and upside potential toward the major trendline at $4,500–$4,550.
The headline target of $4,600 is ambitious, but it is not out of reach if the technical conditions align. Reaching that level requires gold to clear several hurdles along the way, each of which will test the resolve of both buyers and sellers.
First, gold must break above the wedge resistance near $4,070. This is the immediate hurdle and the first sign that the pattern is playing out.
From there, the metal needs to reclaim the $4,180–$4,220 zone, which was previously support and now acts as resistance. A clean break above this area would confirm that the short-term downtrend has ended and that the recovery has legs.
The most important obstacle is the large descending trendline that currently sits near $4,500–$4,550.
This trendline has defined the bear market since the highs and is the last major barrier before gold price can target $4,600. Breaking above it would be a powerful signal that the trend is turning and that the recovery is real.
For this scenario to play out, the market needs to see a break of structure to the upside and a bullish change of character.
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The near-term direction of gold hinges on one critical level: $3,980. As long as buyers defend this area, the wedge pattern remains valid, and the bullish setup stays intact.
A decisive break below that support would invalidate the pattern and likely lead to a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
The risk of further downside is real. The overall market structure remains bearish, and gold is still trading below all major trendlines. There has been no confirmed bullish break of structure, and the sequence of lower highs has not yet been broken. Until these conditions change, the path of least resistance is still to the downside.
Gold could move in either direction over the short term. Prices often rise during periods of economic uncertainty and lower interest rates, while a stronger U.S. dollar or higher bond yields can put pressure on gold.
Will gold prices go down in 2026Gold may experience pullbacks during 2026, but no one can predict the market with certainty. Inflation, central bank policy, geopolitical events, and investor demand will all influence its price.
Will gold rate decrease in coming days in 2027Short-term gold prices in 2027 cannot be predicted with certainty. Daily moves will depend on economic data, interest rate expectations, currency movements, and global market sentiment.
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The post Gold Price to $4.6K? Bulls Defend $4K, One Analyst Expects a Recovery appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
