NBC News, based on AP data, projects Josh Turek as the winner of the Iowa Senate race against Ashley Hinson. At 06:59 CET the count stood at 50.5 to 46.4 percent with 96.9 percent counted. It
NBC News, based on AP data, projects Josh Turek as the winner of the Iowa Senate race against Ashley Hinson. At 06:59 CET the count stood at 50.5 to 46.4 percent with 96.9 percent counted. It is the first Democratic Senate win in Iowa since 2008. The seat is open because Republican Joni Ernst is not seeking a third term. Josh Turek, a Democratic state representative, ran against Ashley Hinson, a Republican US representative endorsed by President Donald Trump. Iowa also elected a governor, and it is the first time since 1968 that an open Senate seat and an open governor's office were on the ballot together.
Iowa Senate race: the key facts
Iowa's polls closed at 03:00 CET. We estimate about 24,000 votes are still out, most of them in Jasper, Lee, Madison. With the race called, the remaining votes only change the final margin.
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
Polk County, home to Des Moines, went from D+10.8 in the 2024 presidential race to D+26.7 now, with 95 percent counted. Linn County, around Cedar Rapids, went from D+9.9 in the 2024 presidential race to D+23.9 now, with 95 percent counted. Scott County, around Davenport, went from R+3.9 in the 2024 presidential race to D+12.2 now, with 99 percent counted. Johnson County, home to Iowa City, went from D+37.8 in the 2024 presidential race to D+52.5 now, with 95 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 16.3 points toward Democrats on average. These figures compare a partial Senate count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change. Trump voters who stayed home and Republicans who split their ticket look the same in this table.
County Trump vs Harris 2024 Hinson vs Turek 2026 Counted Polk D+10.8 D+26.7 95 % Linn D+9.9 D+23.9 95 % Johnson D+37.8 D+52.5 95 % Scott R+3.9 D+12.2 99 % Black Hawk D+1.2 D+18.6 95 % Dallas R+4.7 D+7.4 91 % Dubuque R+8.6 D+5.3 95 % Story D+10.3 D+28.2 99 %
Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 results via NBC News
Turek has been a state representative from the 20th district since 2023. In June he won the Democratic nomination with about 63 percent over state senator Zach Wahls, according to Wikipedia's race summary. Hinson has represented Iowa's 2nd congressional district since 2021 and won the Republican nomination with about 74 percent over former state senator Jim Carlin. Thomas Laehn is on the ballot for the Libertarian Party. Cost of living, tariffs, health-care costs and AI data centers were among the contested issues: Turek has called for regulating data centers, while Hinson favors AI development.
Republican Kim Reynolds is not running for a third term. Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, faced Zach Lahn, a Republican businessman who won his primary in an upset over Representative Randy Feenstra, whom Trump had endorsed. Before this race, Democrats had last won the governor's office in Iowa in 2006.
Most crypto and AI committee money was aimed at the Senate race. Tech Influence Watch, the tracker formerly known as Follow the Crypto, lists $491,234 spent against Turek and $376,836 spent for Hinson by two committees: Digital Freedom Fund, a crypto committee, and Alliance for a Better Future, an AI committee. Digital Freedom Fund accounts for $697,124 of the total. Hinson also drew $142,750 in direct support from Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, Winklevoss Capital Management and seven other companies or their executives.
The advocacy group Stand With Crypto scores Turek 100 and Hinson 99, so both candidates sit near the top of its scale, yet the committee money went against Turek. For the next attempt at a market structure law, the Iowa seat counts: the Senate did not take up the CLARITY Act on 15 September, as the vote to begin debate failed 49 to 50, with no Democrat voting yes, and it needed 60 votes. Whoever takes the Iowa seat votes on the next attempt. Where the bill stands is in our CLARITY Act explainer.
Republicans went into the night with 53 seats, so Democrats needed a net gain of four for the majority, and Iowa's open seat was one of the Republican 53. NBC News projects Democrats to control the Senate, with 53 seats for Democrats and 41 for Republicans at 06:59 CET. With the majority decided, the races still open decide the size of the margin, not who controls the chamber. All calls and the full Senate table are in our midterm results live ticker. More from the states: Kansas, Nebraska and the $13.5 million against Dan Osborn and Michigan and its crypto ETF stake.
With the race called, the prediction market has little left to price. The open question for traders is the balance of power in Washington. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
