Key Highlights XRP is trading near $1.03 as of August 9, 2026, with a market cap of approximately $64.73 billion — down 6.91% in 30 days and 43.74% year-to-date. The Tom DeMark Sequential ind
Key Highlights
XRP has spent the better part of 2026 under consistent selling pressure — declining 43.74% year-to-date and testing the psychologically significant $1.00–$1.04 support zone repeatedly after peaking near multi-year highs in 2025. For much of that period, the weight of evidence pointed to continued weakness.
That picture is beginning to shift.
Three independent signals — a rare monthly Tom DeMark Sequential buy signal, accelerating whale accumulation, and a clearly defined on-chain resistance level at $1.06 — are now aligning simultaneously, creating what crypto analyst Ali Charts (@alicharts) identifies as a potentially significant macro bottom setup for the token.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at approximately $1.03 with a market capitalization of $64.73 billion. The question the market is asking: is this the base, or just another pause before lower prices?
XRP Price on 09 Aug 2026 | Source: Coinmarketcap
The first and most historically significant signal comes from the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator on XRP’s monthly chart — a technical tool designed to identify exhaustion points in trends and flag potential reversals before they become obvious to the broader market.
The TD Sequential has just flashed a monthly buy signal on XRP. Monthly signals carry considerably more weight than daily or weekly readings because they reflect macro-level trend exhaustion rather than short-term noise — and because the same indicator has an exceptional track record on XRP’s chart specifically.
TD Buy Signal on XRP Monthly Chart | Source: @alicharts
The historical precedents:
The sell signal in April 2025 that called the top — and the subsequent 57% decline — is the same framework now generating a buy signal at the current lows. That internal consistency is what gives the current reading analytical credibility rather than making it a theoretical exercise.
As covered in our XRP trend reversal and ETF momentum analysis, XRP’s technical structure has been showing early signs of stabilization for several weeks. The monthly TD Sequential buy signal adds a higher-timeframe confirmation layer to that developing picture.
A confirmed monthly close maintaining the buy signal would be among the most significant technical developments XRP has seen since its 2025 peak.
The second signal comes from on-chain data — and it is the kind of smart money behavior that historically precedes meaningful price recoveries rather than accompanying them.
Over the past week, whales accumulated more than 380 million XRP, pushing total large-holder balances to approximately 8.28 billion XRP. This accumulation has been occurring against a backdrop of continued price weakness — precisely the conditions under which conviction-driven buying by large holders is most meaningful.
XRP Whale Holdings | Source: @alicharts
Why this matters:
When large holders increase their positions during periods of price decline and bearish sentiment, they are effectively expressing a view that current prices represent value relative to their longer-term expectations. This is structurally different from accumulation that occurs alongside rising prices — which can reflect momentum chasing rather than genuine conviction.
The pattern of whale accumulation during price weakness is one of the most consistently bullish on-chain signals in crypto. As documented in our Bitcoin whales accumulate as retail sells analysis, the divergence between large-holder behavior and short-term price action has historically been one of the most reliable leading indicators of trend reversals across major crypto assets.
For XRP specifically, 380 million tokens accumulated in a single week — while the price remains under pressure near $1.03 — represents one of the more constructive on-chain developments the token has seen in 2026.
The third signal ties the technical and on-chain pictures together at a single, clearly defined price level: $1.06.
On-chain data from the Unrealized Profit/Loss Distribution (URPD) reveals that nearly 3 billion XRP were previously transacted in the $1.06 zone — making it one of the most significant price clusters in XRP’s current on-chain cost basis structure. This level functions as both a resistance ceiling (where many holders who bought near $1.06 are currently at or near breakeven and may look to exit) and a potential support floor once decisively cleared.
XRP Key Levels | Source: @alicharts
What a sustained monthly close above $1.06 opens:
What failure to break $1.06 means:
Until $1.06 is decisively cleared on a sustained monthly close, the current range remains intact. The TD Sequential buy signal and whale accumulation build the case for a bottom — but $1.06 is the confirmation threshold. A rejection at that level without follow-through would keep XRP range-bound and delay the broader trend reversal thesis.
This setup mirrors the framework covered in our Bitcoin macro bottom signals analysis — where multiple independent indicators create a constructive backdrop, but a specific price level must be reclaimed to convert thesis into confirmed trend.
Each of these three signals has standalone analytical value. But their simultaneous appearance is what elevates the current setup above a routine technical pattern or a single on-chain data point.
The TD Sequential monthly buy signal provides historical precedent — two prior instances on XRP’s own chart produced rallies of +973% and +1,074%. Whale accumulation provides real-time behavioral confirmation — large holders are acting on the thesis with capital. And the $1.06 URPD level provides a precise, testable price threshold — removing ambiguity about what constitutes confirmation versus failure.
As covered in our two independent Bitcoin models both pointing to undervaluation analysis, the convergence of independent frameworks pointing to the same conclusion carries substantially more weight than any single signal in isolation. The same principle applies here for XRP.
XRP holds the $1.00–$1.04 support zone, builds a base in the current range, and stages a sustained monthly close above $1.06. Confirmation of that breakout — ideally accompanied by continued whale accumulation and volume expansion — would validate the TD Sequential buy signal and open the path toward $1.35 as the first major target, with $1.64 as the extended objective. This scenario aligns with the historical pattern where TD Sequential monthly buy signals on XRP preceded multi-hundred-percent advances.
Bearish ScenarioXRP fails to reclaim $1.06 on a sustained basis and loses the $1.00 psychological support. A daily or weekly close below $1.00 would significantly weaken the macro bottom thesis and put lower support levels — potentially in the $0.80–$0.85 range — back into focus. In this scenario, the whale accumulation near $1.03 would represent early positioning that requires more time and lower prices before the setup resolves bullishly.
XRP’s 2026 has been defined by a 43.74% year-to-date decline that has tested even the most patient holders. But the current setup — a monthly TD Sequential buy signal with a historical track record of flagging XRP’s major cycle turns, 380 million tokens accumulated by whales in a single week, and a precisely defined on-chain resistance level at $1.06 — represents the most constructive combination of signals XRP has produced since the 2025 peak.
The macro bottom may already be in. What it is not yet is confirmed. $1.06 on a sustained monthly close is the single level that converts the current multi-signal thesis into a confirmed trend reversal — and the level traders and investors will be watching most closely in the weeks ahead.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.
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