Monday’s sell-off pushed HYPE approximately 2.3% lower for the past day but the token found support at the Fibonacci level measured from the May low of $38.1 to the cycle high around $77. The
Monday’s sell-off pushed HYPE approximately 2.3% lower for the past day but the token found support at the Fibonacci level measured from the May low of $38.1 to the cycle high around $77. The bounce preserved the immediate support structure, while the 50-day SMA at $65.3 now stands between the current price and a broader recovery.
The 50-day SMA supported the rally from late May but now sits above the price for the first time during the current cycle. A level that previously absorbed pullbacks has become the immediate test for buyers attempting to restore the uptrend.
Coindoo’s owner Filip Vantchev, who published the setup on X, wrote that HYPE “held the key Fibonacci support after yesterday’s sell-off” and identified the moving average as the decision point. A confirmed rejection at the 50-day SMA can leave the token exposed to another decline, while a reclaim followed by a successful retest might shift the structure back toward upside continuation.
Daily Hyperliquid/USD technical chart showing price movement relative to key Fibonacci levels and moving averages as of July 14, 2026. HYPE has formed lower highs since reaching $76.9 in early June. The descending trendline and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $67.7 sit above the moving average, creating a resistance band between approximately $65.3 and $67.8. Price has been rejected from that area during each of its last three approaches.
The relative strength index near 53 does not provide a directional advantage. Momentum remains neutral, leaving the price response around the moving average and descending trendline to determine whether the recovery can develop into a structural reversal.
A daily close below $62.1 may invalidate the current defense and expose the next Fibonacci supports at $57.5 and $52.9. The lower level coincides with the area where HYPE began consolidating in June.
The spot-demand picture weakened alongside the technical breakdown. According to SoSoValue data, HYPE spot ETFs have recorded positive net inflows in every completed week since tracking began on May 15, including a weekly peak of $111.36 million in the period ending June 26.
The current week has not yet closed, but the latest two trading sessions were negative. Investors withdrew $5.73 million on July 10 and another $3.93 million on July 13, while July 9 recorded no net movement. The two red sessions produced combined outflows of $9.66 million.
That amount remains small compared with the more than $300 million accumulated since May. The timing is more notable: the withdrawals appeared as HYPE lost the 50-day SMA, indicating that ETF demand did not cushion the technical weakness during those sessions.
Two consecutive outflow days are not enough to establish sustained distribution, and the current week could still finish with a positive net result. A return to inflows before the weekly close can weaken the signal, while further red sessions would mark the first meaningful interruption to the products’ previously consistent demand trend.
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76 Banking Groups Urge Senate to Close Clarity Act ‘Loophole’June U.S. consumer price index data is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 14. Consensus expectations point to headline inflation slowing to 3.8% year over year from 4.2% in May, with core inflation near 2.8%.
After that, Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual testimony as Federal Reserve Chair before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets are likely to assess his comments alongside the inflation report, with rate futures pricing the possibility of an interest-rate increase as early as September.
A softer inflation reading combined with a patient policy signal could improve demand for risk assets and help HYPE challenge the resistance between $65.3 and $67.7. A stronger CPI print or hawkish testimony probably will reinforce the pressure already visible in ETF flows and the technical structure.
Energy prices add another inflation risk. WTI crude rose 3% to $80.5 on July 14, while Brent gained 4.3% to $86.9, according to OilPrice data. Renewed escalation between the United States and Iran has added a supply-risk premium to crude, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s attempt to bring inflation lower.
Higher energy costs feed into the inflation outlook, while tighter monetary policy has historically reduced liquidity at the more speculative end of the market.
Reclaiming the 50-day SMA at $65.3 and holding it on a retest could turn the moving average back into support, opening the way toward the resistance band near $67.7.
Failure to defend $62.1, particularly during a broader risk-off move, might weaken the current structure and expose $57.5, followed by $52.9 if selling pressure persists.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
The post Major Test for HYPE – Can Bulls Flip the 50-SMA Back to Support? appeared first on Coindoo.
