Mark Zuckerberg would covertly create ARENA, Meta’s prediction market

Meta would be preparing its entry into the prediction market with an application called “Arena”. After the failures of Libra and stablecoins, Mark Zuckerberg would be betting on a system without real money. But will this project see the light of day, or will it be yet another lost bet?

In brief

• Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta would develop ARENA, an app for prediction markets without real money, based on a points system.
• The project aims to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, but its success remains uncertain.
• No official announcement: everything relies on media leaks, with no guarantee of launch.

Meta and Mark Zuckerberg would collaborate on a “Arena” prediction market

According to the New York Times, Meta would secretly be developing a prediction market application called “Arena”. This platform, led by Mark Zuckerberg, would operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp. Users could bet on sports events, political, or global events… but without real money. Instead, a points system, inspired by video games, would be used.

The goal would be to capitalize on Meta’s 3.56 billion daily users to compete with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, whose combined monthly volume would reach 130 billion dollars in 2026. Yet, questions remain. How could a no-financial-stake app like “Arena” attract users? And especially, would US regulators, already wary of prediction markets, allow Meta to play this game without imposing constraints? For now, no official announcement has been made.

Meta, another project that will most likely never see the light of day?

After the crushing failure of Libra (which became Diem before being abandoned in 2022) and attempts to integrate USDC and USDT stablecoin payments on its social networks, Meta would be trying again with “ Arena”. The pattern seems familiar:

• A loud announcement, still pending;
• An ambitious project;
• Then a quiet abandonment due to regulatory or technical realities.

Prediction markets are already under criticism in the United States, accused of promoting bets on sensitive events like death. So could Meta afford to take such a risk and suffer yet another potential failure? Worse, “Arena” would arrive just as Meta is laying off 10% of its workforce to refocus on AI. A poorly chosen timing that casts doubt. Is this project a genuine strategy or just a PR operation to divert attention?

“Arena” could be Meta’s savior… or its next crushing failure. Between overambition and regulatory reality, the social media giant would once again be playing with fire. And you, do you believe this time luck will smile on Mark Zuckerberg?