At 19:27 CET, Scott Colom led Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race by 65 votes, 48.9 to 48.9 percent with 95.6 percent of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News, based on
At 19:27 CET, Scott Colom led Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race by 65 votes, 48.9 to 48.9 percent with 95.6 percent of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News, based on AP data. No winner has been called.
Scott Colom, a Democratic district attorney, ran against Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. A win would make Colom the first Black senator from Mississippi since Blanche K. Bruce, who left office in 1881, and the first Democrat from the state to win a Senate election since John C. Stennis in 1982. There is no runoff in this race: the candidate with the most votes takes the seat. Independent Ty Pinkins has 19,938 votes, many times the gap between the two. The outcome now depends on ballots still to be counted, above all affidavit ballots.
Mississippi Senate race: the key facts
Hyde-Smith led for most of election night. Colom closed the gap as late returns came in from Hinds County and from majority-Black counties in the Delta and Southwest Mississippi. At 12:05 a.m. Central his lead was 28 votes, 462,779 to 462,751. Shortly after midnight, Hinds County officials paused the count for the night. From then until 19:27 CET, Colom's total grew by 78 votes and Hyde-Smith's by 41. AP's estimate of the expected vote implies about 44,000 votes still out, with the largest shares in Hinds, Rankin, Harrison. That is itself an estimate, so the real number may be lower.
The Colom campaign estimated around 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots outstanding, and the Hyde-Smith campaign said its internal numbers showed she would win. An affidavit ballot is a provisional ballot, cast for example when a voter has no acceptable photo ID or is at the wrong precinct, and it is generally reviewed and counted after Election Day. Hyde-Smith declared victory on Tuesday night. Colom told supporters on Wednesday: "Where we are, where the ballots are, we're gonna win." Counties report at different speeds, so a lead at this stage can still move in either direction until the race is called.
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
The next steps come from the Secretary of State's 2026 elections calendar:
Date What happens 10 November, 5 p.m. Last day for mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to reach the circuit clerk, and for voters who cast an affidavit ballot over missing photo ID to show it 13 November Counties must send their certified returns to the Secretary of State 3 December The Secretary of State declares the resultThe state's county election handbook describes no recount procedure. It gives every candidate the right to a full examination of the ballot boxes within 12 calendar days after certification. Its section on contesting a general election covers county and county district offices and refers legislative seats to a separate rule, and a US Senate seat is not listed there. A bill for a mandatory recount, House Bill 1026, died in committee on 3 February. The US Constitution makes each chamber the judge of the elections of its own members.
Our assessment: if the gap stays in the dozens, the review of affidavit ballots in the counties matters more than any later step, because each accepted or rejected ballot can change the lead. Colom has already said "We have an army of lawyers." A dispute that stays open after 3 December could end in the Senate itself.
Hinds County, home to Jackson, went from D+46.1 in the 2024 presidential race to D+60.8 now, with 90 percent counted. DeSoto County, in the Memphis suburbs, went from R+24.1 in the 2024 presidential race to D+6.1 now, with 95 percent counted. Harrison County, on the Gulf Coast, went from R+28.9 in the 2024 presidential race to R+3.7 now, with 94 percent counted. Rankin County, where Hyde-Smith ran strongest among the largest counties, went from R+47.1 in the 2024 presidential race to R+25.6 now, with 90 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 19.2 points toward Democrats on average. These figures compare a Senate count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change. Hyde-Smith also ran behind her party: the state's Republican House members each led by more than 15 points on the same night.
County Trump vs Harris 2024 Hyde-Smith vs Colom 2026 Counted Hinds D+46.1 D+60.8 90 % Harrison R+28.9 R+3.7 94 % DeSoto R+24.1 D+6.1 95 % Rankin R+47.1 R+25.6 90 % Madison R+17.3 D+0.6 95 % Jackson R+39.9 R+14.7 95 % Lee R+38.8 R+17.6 90 % Forrest R+17.9 D+10.3 95 %
Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 results via NBC News
Colom is district attorney for Mississippi's 16th Judicial District, a post he has held since 2016, and won the Democratic nomination with 73 percent. Hyde-Smith blocked President Joe Biden's nomination of Colom to a federal judgeship in 2023, which left him free to run this year. She is seeking a second full term and won the Republican nomination with 80.8 percent.
The race drew national attention late. President Donald Trump held a rally for Hyde-Smith in Corinth on 26 October, and former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Colom. On 2 November, The Cook Political Report, NBC News and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race Likely Republican, and Silver Bulletin rated it Solid Republican.
Tech Influence Watch, the tracker formerly known as Follow the Crypto, lists $494,527 from the AI committee American Mission in support of Hyde-Smith in the general election. Kalshi, Anduril and Coinbase or their executives added $58,500 in direct support. The tracker's Senate entry for Mississippi names support for Hyde-Smith only.
The advocacy group Stand With Crypto scores Hyde-Smith 100 and rates her as strongly supporting crypto, and it lists no stance on crypto for Colom. The seat counts for the next attempt at a market structure law: on 15 September the vote to begin debate on the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50, with no Democrat voting yes, and it needed 60 votes. The bill lapses when this Congress ends on 3 January, so any new attempt runs through a Senate that includes the winner of this race. Where the bill stands is in our CLARITY Act explainer.
NBC News projects Democrats to control the Senate, with 54 seats for Democrats and 44 for Republicans at 19:27 CET. A Colom win would lift Democrats to 55 seats, a Hyde-Smith win would lift Republicans to 45. Alaska, the other open race, decides the remaining seat. With the majority decided, the races still open decide the size of the margin, not who controls the chamber. All calls are in our midterm results live ticker, the other open race in the Alaska Senate results, and what the majority means for crypto in our piece on the Senate.
Traders put Colom at 90.0 percent and Hyde-Smith at 10.2 percent at 19:27 CET, on a market with $4.5 million in volume. That shows what the market expects. Prediction markets can move quickly on early counts. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
Title photo: Michael Barera, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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