Nvidia stock has drawn the largest opening bid from individual investors that Vanda Research has ever recorded, on the morning its founder left. Retail traders bought a net $111 million of th
Nvidia stock has drawn the largest opening bid from individual investors that Vanda Research has ever recorded, on the morning its founder left. Retail traders bought a net $111 million of the shares in the first 30 minutes of Thursday’s session, more than 40 times a normal open, according to Vanda data cited by CNBC. At 11:59 a.m. Eastern the shares traded at $165.25, down 4.9% on the day but 11% above the $148.80 low.
Two readings put that record in proportion. CNBC’s volume counter showed 179 million shares at 9:52 a.m. and 216 million at 10:04 a.m., so roughly $30 billion of stock changed hands in that half hour, and the retail net bid was well under 1% of it. The analysts cutting the stock are not below the tape either. Stifel’s new target is $205, and Baird and Bernstein are at $200. All three sit more than 20% above where Nvidia trades.
Thursday’s buyers are the first of the week in profit. Nvidia closed at $178.67 on Monday, $168.89 on Tuesday and $173.73 on Wednesday, exchange data show. Vanda said it was the most heavily bought security in its universe on each of those days and has taken 61% of all retail net buying this week. Every one of those closes is above the current price. Anyone who bought in Thursday’s first half hour paid between $148.80 and about $163.
The damage sits in leveraged products. Retail investors put $42.5 million into six 2x long Nvidia ETFs from Monday through Wednesday, one of the largest three-day inflows on record, Vanda said. One of them, GraniteShares’ 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF, opened Thursday at $15.04 against a prior close of $20.40, a 26% gap, and was still down 10% at 11:59 a.m., CNBC data showed. On Hyperliquid, open interest in the NVDA perpetual fell 22% between 10:04 a.m. and noon, from 3.89 million contracts to 3.03 million, while the price rose. Positions were being closed into the bounce, not added.
At least 10 Wall Street analysts have turned more bearish on Nvidia this week, according to FactSet figures reported by CNBC. Stifel cut its target to $205 from $315 and kept a buy rating. Baird cut to $200 from $500 and moved to neutral. “We find it hard to advocate stepping in here in size as there will no doubt be more allegations to come,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a note on Thursday. KeyBanc’s John Vinh wrote that Jensen Huang’s departure “warrants a higher risk premium and lower valuation multiple for the stock”.
The company’s answer is operational. Interim chief Colette Kress will gather the executive team at the Santa Clara headquarters on Thursday to discuss leadership and continuity plans, a source told CNBC. Earlier coverage has the resignation, the premarket plunge and sector moves and the succession odds after Donald Trump’s Tim Cook post.
For brokers, the exposure is concentration. One stock taking 61% of a week’s retail net buying, with leverage layered on top, leaves client books tied to two dated events. Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, 17 November. Huang will testify to Congress before Thanksgiving, House Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast told reporters on Thursday. That is the case for keeping margin on Nvidia-linked products wide through both.
The cut targets and the retail bid point the same way, which is the unusual part. The disagreement is about size and timing, not direction. If Tuesday’s numbers arrive without a new hedge on demand, the $200 targets become the reference and Thursday’s buyers will have set the low. If another allegation lands first, as Rasgon expects, $148.80 is the level every leveraged long has to defend.
