Tuesday started with quiet confidence on Wall Street and Capitol Hill. By afternoon, that confidence had cracked. The Clarity Act vote is set for today, Tuesday, Sept. 15, at 2:15 p.m. ET, an
Tuesday started with quiet confidence on Wall Street and Capitol Hill. By afternoon, that confidence had cracked. The Clarity Act vote is set for today, Tuesday, Sept. 15, at 2:15 p.m. ET, and traders on Polymarket spent the last 24 hours pricing in a very different outcome than they did yesterday.
The Polymarket Clarity Act odds for the bill becoming law in 2026 have fallen sharply, and the reasons trace straight back to a late fight over ethics rules and stablecoin policy.
Key Takeaways
Polymarket odds that the H.R.3633 bill gets signed into law in 2026 dropped from 35% yesterday to 19% today, a 16-point fall in one day.
Bettors give a 55% chance that more than 50 senators vote yes today, but only a 32% chance that more than 60 senators do.
Senator Elizabeth Warren plans to speak against the bill on the floor, arguing new ethics language still leaves major gaps.
The Clarity Act vote today is one of the most watched crypto policy moments of the year, and Polymarket Clarity Act betting on the outcome has swung hard within a single trading day. The Polymarket listing titled "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026" shows the shift in real time as senators head toward the floor for a procedural vote this afternoon.
This is not a slow, steady climb or fall. It is a sudden reversal, and it happened right as fresh reporting on ethics rules and stablecoin concerns hit crypto desks overnight.
Yesterday, Polymarket data showed the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 climbing to 35%. Today, that number sits at 19%.
Source: Official Website
That is a 16-point crash in a single day, one of the sharpest single-day moves this market has seen on the bill. Traders who were leaning toward passage yesterday pulled back fast once new details about the ethics fight and stablecoin worries started circulating this morning.
Polymarket Metric
Yesterday
Today
Bill signed into law in 2026
35%
19%
More than 50 senators vote yes
Not tracked
55%
More than 60 senators vote yes
Not tracked
32%
Vote counts matter just as much as the passage odds. Polymarket shows a 55% chance that more than 50 senators back the bill today. That number drops hard when the bar moves higher: only a 32% chance that more than 60 senators vote yes.
Source: Official Site
A simple majority looks possible. A stronger, filibuster-proof majority looks far less likely, and that gap between 50 and 60 is exactly what traders are watching.
Yesterday brought real optimism. Eleanor Terrett reported that Trump accepted tougher crypto ethics rules headed for its key Senate vote, and that a wave of confidence was moving through the crypto industry heading into this policy week.
Senate Republicans released new Clarity Act text built around a revised ethics proposal that Trump agreed to. That same text also carried changes to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), stablecoin yield rules, and the so-called "Ag title."
Then today, the mood turned. Wu Blockchain reported that the White House is pushing back on fears of stablecoin "deposit flight" just ahead of the Clarity vote. Ethics questions resurfaced, and the tone on trading desks shifted from cautious optimism to open uncertainty within hours.
Semafor reported that the Trump administration is making a last push to get Senate Republicans ahead of today's procedural vote. The White House Council of Economic Advisers plans to release an interactive tool that lets users model stablecoin growth against community-bank deposits, aiming to show that current data does not back up claims of large-scale deposit flight from small banks.
Not everyone is aligned, even within party lines. Some Republican senators remain uneasy about stablecoin rewards programs, while some Democrats say the new ethics restrictions on the president still do not go far enough. That split explains why the odds moved so fast in one direction, then reversed.
Predicting today's Polymarket Clarity Act outcome with certainty would be premature. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, plans to speak against the bill on the floor. She argues the new ethics language, which bars the president and senior officials from issuing digital assets, still leaves major gaps.
Her concerns include limited enforcement power for regulators and no clear coverage of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture or its pursuit of banking licenses. Those unresolved questions are a big part of why the odds of passage sit at 19% instead of holding near yesterday's 35%.
Today's 2:15 p.m. ET vote will show whether the bill keeps moving, or stalls again under the weight of ethics and stablecoin disputes. A 19% chance of becoming law in 2026, a 55% chance of a simple majority, and just 32% for a stronger 60-vote margin together paint a bill with real support that has lost the momentum it held yesterday.
YMYL Disclaimer: This content covers prediction market data and legislative developments related to it and is intended for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, investment, or betting advice. Polymarket odds reflect trader sentiment at a specific point in time and can change quickly; they are not a guarantee of any legislative or market outcome. Readers should verify current data directly through official Senate records and Polymarket before making any decisions, and consult a qualified professional where needed.
