Prediction Markets Turn More Bearish On Bitcoin

Are traders betting on another Bitcoin capitulation? On Kalshi, one of the main American prediction markets, investors are now heavily betting on a continued decline of the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Some contracts even assign a 66% probability to a return below $55,000 by the end of the year. Between growing pessimism and conflicting signals in derivatives markets, these bets offer valuable insight into the current sentiment dominating the crypto ecosystem.

In Brief

• Prediction market traders anticipate a continued Bitcoin decline and foresee a return below several key thresholds.
• Contracts traded on Kalshi reveal growing investor pessimism about BTC’s trajectory by the end of 2026.
• Despite these bearish expectations, derivatives markets continue to send more optimistic signals about Bitcoin’s outlook.
• This divergence between prediction and derivatives markets unveils the uncertainty currently prevailing in the crypto ecosystem.

Kalshi traders anticipate a prolonged Bitcoin decline

American prediction markets display growing pessimism toward Bitcoin. Indeed, participants on Kalshi now assign a 66% probability to BTC falling below $55,000 before December 31, 2026.

Even more concerning, the market estimates nearly a 50 % chance of a drop below the $50,000 threshold within the same period. These estimates reflect a notable deterioration in investor sentiment following the recent crypto market correction. Unlike traditional opinion polls, these forecasts are based on real financial positions, with each participant committing their own capital to back their scenario.

Contracts observed on Kalshi reveal several strong expectations :

• 66 % probability that Bitcoin falls below $55,000 before the end of 2026 ;
• Nearly 50 % probability of BTC falling below $50,000 in the same period ;
• A growing perception that the current correction is not yet over ;
• A markedly more cautious market sentiment compared to just a few weeks ago.

This reading of prediction markets shows that many investors are no longer only questioning Bitcoin’s ability to quickly regain its historical highs, but also the potential depth of the ongoing pullback.

Divergent market signals

While prediction markets are particularly cautious, other segments of the crypto ecosystem send a more nuanced message. Derivatives markets continue to record sustained activity despite falling prices. Open interest remains high, and some operators retain speculative positions oriented towards a potential rebound. This situation creates a contrast between the expectations expressed on Kalshi and the behavior observed among some derivatives product traders.

Such divergence illustrates two distinct market readings. On one side, participants in prediction markets seem to favor a scenario of continued Bitcoin weakness. On the other, a portion of investors active in derivatives contracts continue betting on a recovery despite recent tensions. This opposition between caution and optimism fuels the uncertainty currently dominating the crypto market and makes the coming weeks especially important to confirm one or the other trajectory.

The confrontation between these two views could become one of the main topics for investors to watch in the coming months. If Kalshi’s forecasts materialize, they would strengthen the credibility of prediction markets as a tool for anticipating price movements. Conversely, a Bitcoin rebound would give more weight to operators exposed to derivatives markets.