Predictive Markets: Madrid Blocks Polymarket and Kalshi

The regulatory noose is tightening suddenly on the crypto ecosystem. On Tuesday, May 26, 2026, Spain officially ordered the blocking of Polymarket and Kalshi on its territory. The Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling (DGOJ) accuses the two giants of the predictive market of addressing the Spanish public without holding the mandatory gambling licenses. This shock decision marks a new stage in the global crackdown on these platforms.

In Brief

• Spain blocks Polymarket and Kalshi due to lack of license.
• The decision is effective since May 26, 2026, with a 3 to 4 months procedure.
• More than a dozen countries have now restricted access to these leading predictive market platforms.

The Predictive Market in Madrid’s Crosshairs: Immediate Blocking and Open Procedure

On May 26, 2026, the Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling (DGOJ), attached to the Spanish Ministry of Social Rights, opened a disciplinary procedure against Polymarket and Kalshi. They recently announced their entry into crypto perpetual futures.

The investigation was initially triggered by complaints from authorized local gaming operators. Result: regulators ordered the blocking of the two leading predictive market platforms on a precautionary basis for Spanish users. The measure will remain in effect throughout the procedure, estimated to last three to four months.

The position of the authorities is clear: in Spain, as in other European jurisdictions, predictive markets constitute games of chance whenever bets are placed on uncertain future events. Their operation thus requires a specific administrative license. However, neither Polymarket nor its American rival Kalshi have the precious authorization to operate legally in Spain.

A Global Regulatory Contagion?

Spain joins a growing list of countries determined to regulate (or even ban) the predictive market. Through the National Gaming Authority (ANJ), France had already led the way by initiating similar procedures against Polymarket a few months earlier.

This week, Indonesia blocked Polymarket by classifying it as illegal online gambling. The same applies to India as well as other countries, including:

• Brazil;
• Taiwan;
• Thailand;
• China;
• Japan;
• Ukraine;
• Belgium;
• Australia;
• United Kingdom;
• Germany.

Even in the United States, the situation is also getting complicated. Members of Congress have opened a investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket for suspected insider trading. This action comes after reports of suspiciously well-timed bets before US military actions against Iran.

The predictive markets sector is entering an unprecedented regulatory turbulence zone. If other European countries follow Spain and France, the entire business and growth model of prediction platforms will have to be reinvented. To be continued…