TLDR: QCP says Bitcoin’s $80K rebound is backed by $2.8B in ETF inflows as futures open interest declines. Bitcoin futures open interest fell from 646,000 BTC to 588,000 BTC even as prices cl
Bitcoin’s rebound toward $80,000 is carrying a healthier market structure than many rapid crypto rallies, according to digital-asset trading firm QCP. Rather than relying on aggressive leveraged buying, the advance has coincided with spot demand, ETF inflows, and short covering.
QCP: Bitcoin’s Current Rally Is Backed by Solid Spot Support
QCP Capital reported that from an underlying market structure perspective, BTC's current rally from $63,500 to above $80,000 is backed by solid spot support. The rally from $63,500 has been supported by ~$2.8B in spot… pic.twitter.com/29iK4Y2Acf
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 29, 2026
The cryptocurrency climbed from about $63,500 to nearly $80,000 within slightly more than one week, briefly crossing $81,000. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows across eight consecutive sessions, providing measurable demand behind the recovery.
QCP’s derivatives data reinforces the argument that leverage has not been the main engine behind the rally. Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest dropped while prices advanced sharply.
Open interest fell from roughly 646,000 BTC in mid-August to around 588,000 BTC during the rebound. At the same time, funding rates remained contained rather than rising sharply alongside prices.
That distinction matters as heavily leveraged rallies can become unstable when traders borrow increasingly larger amounts to maintain bullish positions. Falling open interest instead indicates some futures positions were being closed while the market advanced.
According to QCP, that combination points toward spot purchases and short covering contributing more heavily than aggressive leveraged longs. Short sellers closing bearish positions must buy Bitcoin, adding demand without creating new long-side leverage.
Options positioning has nevertheless become more bullish. Call skew strengthened, while the put-call ratio remained below one, indicating stronger demand for upside exposure than downside protection.
However, derivatives conditions remained below levels associated with heavily crowded positioning. Therefore, the market entered the $80,000 region without the same leverage buildup that often accompanies sharp liquidation-driven reversals.
While crypto positioning remains relatively balanced, the macroeconomic environment has become more restrictive. July headline PCE inflation reached 3.7% annually, while core PCE increased 3.3%.
Both readings remained above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Moreover, policymakers kept interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July, although three voting members supported a 25-basis-point increase.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh strengthened that policy message during his Jackson Hole speech. He described the 2% inflation objective as a “firm, fixed target.”
Following the remarks, markets increased the estimated probability of a September rate increase to roughly 56%-60%, compared with about 35% beforehand. Bitcoin subsequently slipped below $78,000 as the dollar strengthened and short-term Treasury yields rose.
Meanwhile, Treasury liquidity measures provided a separate market influence. The Treasury will increase liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year nominal securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion beginning September 9.
The announcement initially pushed longer-term yields lower and weakened the dollar. However, Treasury emphasized that the program supports market functioning rather than representing Fed-style quantitative easing.
Against that backdrop, QCP identified $81,000-$86,000 as Bitcoin’s next important trading region. Futures funding and open interest now provide measurable indicators of whether spot demand continues dominating the rally.
For now, the available data shows Bitcoin approaching that zone with substantial ETF inflows and declining futures exposure, while rising Fed policy risk creates a separate macroeconomic challenge.
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