Shiba Inu is quoted at $0.00000573 on Thursday afternoon, that is 5.73 millionths of a dollar, and 1.97 percent below the previous day. The short answer to the question of what matters over t
Shiba Inu is quoted at $0.00000573 on Thursday afternoon, that is 5.73 millionths of a dollar, and 1.97 percent below the previous day. The short answer to the question of what matters over the next few days: the price sits inside a triangle whose apex, according to the technical assessment by Blockchain.News of September 30, falls on October 4. Until then a falling upper edge and a rising lower edge compress the price; after that the tension resolves in one direction. For you as an investor in Germany, that is the one date you can pin the next few days to.
A triangle in chart analysis is a phase in which every recovery ends a little earlier and every setback is bought a little earlier. The two lines meet at some point, and at that point one side is forced to act. The pattern does not predict the direction. It only says when the decision falls due.
The second date is in the calendar of the German Federal Ministry of Finance and has nothing to do with the chart, but a great deal to do with your return. The draft bill reforming crypto taxation is due to pass cabinet on October 14, and it draws a line at December 31, 2026. Both deadlines appear further down in this article with their consequences.
The current position of Shiba Inu is easier to read if you separate three time frames. Over one year SHIB is down 53.34 percent, and around 30 percent since January 2026. Over the quarter it looks different: from the cycle low at $0.0000041 in July the price has recovered by 39.3 percent, and September, with a gain of a good 10 percent, was the strongest month of the year. Over the week there is a loss of 0.83 percent, so the market is marking time.
That stagnation is precisely the triangle. The swing high of September 22 at $0.0000063 marks the falling upper edge, the rising lows since July the lower edge. The Blockchain.News analysis dates the intersection to October 4 and puts the probabilities at 40 to 45 percent for the breakout to the upside and 55 to 60 percent for the break to the downside. That is the assessment of the analysts there and not a certainty, and it comes from a reading of the daily chart.
Important for placing it: a triangle breakout is a signal over days, not over months. Anyone building an annual forecast on it is overstretching the pattern.
The levels from the same analysis can be sorted into a table. The percentages relate to the price of $0.00000573 on Thursday afternoon.
Level in dollars Distance from the price Meaning in the chart 0.0000090 to 0.0000095 around 57 to 66 percent above euphoric extension, only in a broad meme coin rally 0.0000073 to 0.0000075 27 to 31 percent above first target cluster, where several analyst models meet 0.0000063 9.9 percent above swing high of September 22, the upper edge of the triangle 0.0000059 to 0.0000060 2.9 to 4.7 percent above immediate resistance, the first hurdle of all 0.0000057 level with the price 200-day EMA, the price is glued to it 0.0000052 to 0.0000054 5.8 to 9.2 percent below 50-day and 200-day averages as a catching zone 0.0000050 12.7 percent below threshold below which the channel structure breaks 0.0000041 to 0.0000042 26.6 to 28.4 percent below cycle low of July 2026The exponential 200-day average, 200-EMA for short, is a moving mean of the last 200 closing prices that weights more recent days more heavily. It sits at around $0.0000057, so practically on the current price. As long as SHIB closes above it, the recovery since July remains technically intact. If the price falls below and stays there, the triangle loses its lower edge, and the next dependable catching zone only comes at $0.0000052.
The momentum readings currently support neither side clearly. The relative strength index stands at 55.67 and therefore in the neutral middle between the usual thresholds of 30 and 70. The stochastic, at 61.65, is above its signal line at 49.32, which speaks mildly for the buyers. Both are indicators that can turn within two trading days.
October is historically the most stable month for Shiba Inu. According to the Blockchain.News assessment, the hit rate of positive Octobers is 80 percent, and across the whole recorded price history the month closed down only once. That is a real pattern, and it is also a narrow one: SHIB has existed only since 2020, so the sample covers a handful of Octobers.
Seasonality remains an observation and does not become a mechanism through repetition. This observation describes what happened more often in the past and supplies no reason for it to happen again. Anyone translating it into a position size should treat it as one argument among several and not as the load-bearing one.
The publicly documented expectations for the end of the month range from a clear loss to a double-digit gain, and that range is itself the most honest statement about the situation.
These figures come from models and not from analysts with liability, and they contradict one another by more than 20 percentage points. For your decision they therefore serve as a range, not as a target. The more dependable part of the forecast is in the chart: $0.0000060 as the first hurdle to the upside, $0.0000050 as the breaking point to the downside.
Burning tokens means that SHIB is sent to an address from which nobody can retrieve them again. The amount in circulation falls permanently as a result. On September 30, according to the data from Shibburn, around 68 million SHIB were burned, and the daily rate jumped by 154.33 percent.
The percentage sounds like an event; the absolute figure clears that up. The amount burned corresponded to a value of about 395 dollars and to around 0.00001 percent of the circulating supply. With 589.24 trillion tokens in circulation, a daily amount of that size does not change the supply measurably. Anyone reading the burn rate as a price driver is measuring a large percentage on a very small base.
The total supply, at 589.50 trillion, sits only just above the circulating supply. So there is no large locked reserve that will come to market later, but also no mechanism that tightens supply at any appreciable pace.
Shibarium is the Shiba Inu project’s own network, a so-called layer 2 solution meant to settle transactions more cheaply than Ethereum itself. Usage has fallen, according to the figures in the same analysis, to around 1,680 transactions a day, compared with 4.69 million daily transactions in August 2025. That is the real fundamental finding behind the price.
An observation from our own coverage fits with it: for 167 days validator staking on Shibarium has been switched off. Anyone who was counting on running income from the network is not getting it at present. For the forecast that means the price currently lives on seasonality, liquidity and market sentiment, not on growing usage.
Records instead of estimates: without proof of acquisition the draft bill treats half of the sale proceeds as the gain.
Here lies the action you can take today, independently of the chart. The German Federal Ministry of Finance’s draft bill on the reform of the taxation of certain crypto assets held privately is due to pass cabinet on October 14, 2026. Associations and law firms were able to comment until October 6, 2026. The substantive rules are to take effect on January 1, 2027, the automatic deduction of tax by the platforms only on January 1, 2028.
What matters is the cut-off date. Crypto assets you acquire up to December 31, 2026 remain, under the draft, within the old law with its one-year holding period. Those holdings therefore stay tax-free after twelve months of holding, even if you sell them only years later. For everything that enters your portfolio from January 1, 2027, the new regime applies. Two layers therefore arise in every holding, and you have to keep them apart. The details and the state of the procedure we have written up in our article on the substitute assessment without a purchase record.
For SHIB holders this is particularly tangible, because positions in this token almost always consist of many small purchases. At a price of 0.00000511 euros you get around 19.57 million tokens for 100 euros, and around 195.69 million for 1,000 euros. Anyone who has been buying more over months is carrying a correspondingly large number of individual transactions around.
The point in the draft that has so far been lost in the debate about the holding period is an estimating rule. If you cannot document the acquisition costs, the tax office treats 50 percent of the sale proceeds as the gain, under what is called the substitute assessment. For securities a comparable rule with 30 percent has applied for years where the bank lacks the acquisition data. The crypto draft sits above that. So the analysis by the specialist portal Der Betrieb of September 14, 2026 describes it, and the tax advisory firm GTKP placed the difference on September 15.
A worked example in SHIB sizes makes the span visible. You sell tokens for 5,000 euros that cost you 4,500 euros. Your actual gain is 500 euros. Without proof, the substitute assessment assumes a gain of 2,500 euros. At a tax rate of 25 percent, around 500 euros lie between the two cases, which is exactly your real gain.
The gap does not arise with an ordinary exchange purchase. If you buy on a platform, leave the tokens there and sell them there, the platform knows the date and the price. It gets tight with a transaction that is common in the everyday life of meme coin holders: a deposit from your own wallet or from another exchange. The receiving platform then sees an inflow without a history. That platform does not know when the tokens came into being and what they cost. That is exactly where the 50 percent rule bites.
With SHIB there is the added difficulty that many holdings have run through the Shibarium bridge or through decentralised exchanges. Each of those steps is a change of place without the acquisition data travelling along. A tax tool or portfolio tracker takes on the job here that you would otherwise have to keep by hand: it holds the chain of purchase date, purchase price and transfer together, even across a change of platform.
Anyone who holds SHIB in self-custody carries the chain of proof for every deposit themselves.
SHIB is technically an ERC-20 token, so it lives on the Ethereum blockchain and is held in any wallet that supports Ethereum. You do not need a dedicated Shiba wallet. Anyone holding larger amounts puts the private key on a device that is never connected to the network; the differences between the models are in our hardware wallet comparison.
On the purchase route, since the EU regulation MiCA took effect, providers need an authorisation for crypto business in the EU. In practice that means this for you: an authorised platform supplies you with statements that will later serve as proof of acquisition, and it remains reachable if you need a summary in three years. Which houses are tradable in Germany and what they cost is in the overview of the regulated crypto exchanges.
At a price of 0.00000511 euros you are working with eight decimal places. Two things follow from that. First, every platform rounds differently, and the number of units in your statement can deviate minimally from the amount that arrives in your wallet. Second, a spread, meaning the gap between the buy and the sell price, weighs more heavily here in percentage terms than with Bitcoin, because the order book is thinner.
Shiba Inu stands, with a market capitalisation of 3.38 billion dollars, at number 37 among the largest crypto assets. Trading turnover over the past 24 hours was 84.2 million dollars, which corresponds to around 2.5 percent of the market capitalisation. That ratio is unremarkable for a token of this size, but it is spread across many venues.
For you that means two things. Large orders move the price, and in both directions; anyone unwinding a bigger position is better off doing it in parts. And the distance from the all-time high of $0.00008616 of October 27, 2021 is 93.34 percent. To reach that level again the price would have to multiply roughly fifteenfold, which at a circulating supply of 589.24 trillion tokens would mean a market capitalisation in the order of 50 billion dollars. That belongs in every honest Shiba Inu price prediction.
(As of October 1, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
