The SHIB futures market changed direction on Thursday evening. At the 5pm CET settlement, the funding rate for the Shiba Inu perpetual on OKX stood at minus 0.0074 percent, its first negative
The SHIB futures market changed direction on Thursday evening. At the 5pm CET settlement, the funding rate for the Shiba Inu perpetual on OKX stood at minus 0.0074 percent, its first negative reading since November 9. Short positions, in other words bets on falling prices, now pay a fee to the other side. At the same time, the ratio of long to short accounts rose to 2.37. Around 70 percent of the accounts trading SHIB there are therefore still betting on higher prices.
What is established: Shiba Inu traded at $0.00000432, or about €0.0000039, on Coinbase at around 9:45pm CET on Thursday. The daily low on Kraken was $0.00000422, the lowest since July 24. Our assessment follows further down. Negative funding on its own is not a floor, and the SHIB futures market is smaller than the headlines about it suggest. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Shiba Inu price prediction.
The figures for the past 24 hours show the reversal step by step. OKX settles funding every eight hours, at 1am, 9am and 5pm CET. On Wednesday, both the afternoon and the evening settlements were at the usual maximum rate of plus 0.01 percent. Overnight into Thursday the rate was still plus 0.0082 percent, in the morning plus 0.0038 percent, and at 5pm it was minus 0.0074 percent. For the current period up to 1am, the exchange showed a provisional rate of minus 0.0018 percent in the evening.
This is not an outlier without precedent. Of the 100 settlements since October 10, 18 were negative, the deepest on October 25 and October 15 at minus 0.0128 percent each. What is new is the timing. The negative reading comes on a day when SHIB fell below the levels that had held in recent days. On Kraken Futures, too, the rate for the SHIB contract was negative in the evening.
The funding rate is a balancing payment between buyers and sellers of a perpetual contract, a futures contract with no expiry date. If the contract trades above the spot price, longs pay shorts and funding is positive. If it trades below, the reverse applies. The rate therefore measures which side is attracting more leveraged money at any given moment.
The mechanism cuts both ways. Anyone who is short pays continuously while funding is negative. If the price holds, the bet on falling prices becomes more expensive with every settlement, and some traders close their positions. Closing a short means buying back. If enough of these buybacks come together, the price can jump. This sequence is called a short squeeze.
The other side: negative funding arises because the contract is trading below the spot price. That happens when sellers crowd the futures market, for instance because they expect falling prices or are hedging their SHIB holdings against losses. At first, then, it is a sign of pressure rather than recovery. Whether it turns into a squeeze depends on whether the spot market holds. If the price keeps sliding, shorts earn more from the price move than they pay in funding.
Seven in ten accounts are betting on higher SHIB prices, but the bigger money is on the other side.
At first glance the two do not fit together. If 70 percent of accounts are betting on higher prices, funding ought to be positive. The contradiction resolves once you look at what is being measured. The OKX long/short ratio counts accounts, not money. An account with a $50 long counts as much as one with a $50,000 short. Funding, by contrast, depends on the contract price, and that is moved by the large positions.
The pattern, then, is this: many small accounts are long, while a few larger positions press on the short side. The ratio stood at 2.37 on Thursday, after 2.30 on Wednesday. It was last higher on November 3 at 2.38 and on November 2 at 2.81. In early October, when SHIB was still above $0.0000057, it reached 3.24 at times.
This matters for the coming days because leveraged longs are forcibly closed if prices keep falling. These liquidations are sales. If many small longs sit just below the current price, a break of the daily low can trigger a wave of such selling.
In Wednesday's Shiba Inu price prediction, funding on OKX was back at 0.01 percent, the long/short ratio was 2.33, and the zone around $0.00000432 was seen as the first support. Three things have shifted since. Funding has turned negative. The long/short ratio has risen slightly. And the support has not held: on Thursday SHIB fell to $0.00000422 on Kraken, and by the evening it stood at $0.00000432, right at the old level again, this time from below.
One figure has moved against Wednesday's expectation. Back then we had measured that SHIB reacts to bitcoin moves with a factor of 1.36 over 90 days, so it falls harder on weak bitcoin days. On Thursday it was the other way round. Since midnight UTC, which is 1am CET, bitcoin lost about 3.4 percent on Kraken and briefly fell to $71,133, while SHIB gave up only about 1.0 percent over the same period. A single day does not refute a 90-day measurement. It does show, however, that a good deal of selling pressure from the previous days was already priced into SHIB on Thursday.
The impulse came from outside the crypto world. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned with immediate effect on Thursday, the company told the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Chief financial officer Colette Kress is running the company on an interim basis. The stock lost around 12 to 13 percent at times, and risk assets fell with it. We described the impact on the price in the afternoon in Thursday's Shiba Inu price report.
For the Shiba Inu price prediction, the next date matters most: Nvidia reports quarterly results on Tuesday, November 17, after the US market close, late in the evening in Europe. Until then the tech sector sets the tone for sentiment, and memecoins such as SHIB react to that sentiment faster than to their own news.
A second angle besides the futures market is the holdings in the spot market. According to data from analytics firm Arkham, reported by U.Today on November 11, South Korean exchange Upbit holds around 64.16 trillion SHIB worth about $284 million. Robinhood's largest cold wallet holds around 39.27 trillion SHIB. By far the largest holder is the burn address with 410.44 trillion SHIB, around 41 percent of the original supply, permanently removed from circulation there.
By comparison, the futures market is small. Open interest in the SHIB perpetual on OKX was around 1.38 trillion SHIB on Thursday evening, equivalent to just under $6.0 million. At the end of October it was still just under $7.0 million. The Upbit holding alone is about 47 times as large. That puts every funding signal into perspective. It shows the mood of leveraged traders, but it does not move the quantities sitting in the spot market.
On the downside, Thursday's daily low is the first level. At $0.00000422 on Kraken, it was the lowest since July 24. Below it lies the zone of the yearly low. On July 16 SHIB closed at $0.00000412 on Kraken, and the lowest daily low of the past twelve months was $0.00000405 on June 25. From Thursday evening's price, that is around 5 to 6 percent away.
On the upside, the first hurdle is $0.0000045, Wednesday's daily high. Above that come the average of the last 20 daily closes at around $0.00000467 and the 50-day average at around $0.00000515. SHIB has lost a good 37 percent since the start of the year and around 25 percent since October 1.
Below Thursday's daily low, all that is left for SHIB is the zone of the summer's yearly low.
Recovery scenario: If SHIB holds above the daily low of $0.00000422 and closes back above $0.0000045, shorts come under pressure, because they pay funding and lose on the price at the same time. In that case the 20-day line at $0.00000467 would be the next target. The size of the futures market limits such a squeeze, though. With just under $6 million in open interest on OKX, there is not enough mass for a jump of several tens of percent.
Sell-off scenario: If SHIB falls below $0.00000422, the many small longs hit their liquidation levels. A long with tenfold leverage opened at $0.00000432 is closed after a drop of around 9 to 10 percent, depending on the exchange, so at about $0.0000039 and therefore below the yearly low. If the price slips into the zone of $0.0000041, SHIB will be at its lowest level in more than a year.
Which scenario is more likely depends less on SHIB itself than on the market as a whole. Bitcoin stood at around $71,400 on Kraken on Thursday evening. If bitcoin falls further, memecoins usually follow.
Anyone trading SHIB with leverage should work out the funding costs beforehand. An example: a €1,000 position with tenfold leverage corresponds to a volume of €10,000. At the maximum rate of plus 0.01 percent, a long pays €1 per settlement, €3 a day and around €90 a month. That is 9 percent of the stake before the price has even moved. At Thursday's rate of minus 0.0074 percent, by contrast, around €0.74 per settlement flows to the long.
Today you can check three things in your trading account: where your liquidation level sits, whether it is above or below the yearly low of around $0.0000041, and whether a stop-loss kicks in before that level. Perpetual contracts are derivatives and do not fall under the EU's MiCA regulation, which governs trading in the coins themselves. Which platforms offer such contracts and what they cost is shown in our perp DEX comparison.
In the editorial team's view, the negative funding is a warning signal, not a buy signal. Three pieces of evidence support this. Funding turned negative on the day SHIB marked its lowest daily low since July. Around 70 percent of accounts on OKX are still long, so the liquidation levels lie below the price. And with just under $6 million in open interest, the futures market is too small to force a turnaround against a weak overall market.
Against this, SHIB fell less sharply than bitcoin on Thursday, and the negative phases since October mostly ended after one or two settlements. If the daily low holds until Nvidia's results on November 17, the negative funding would in hindsight have been the moment the sellers arrived too late. That is not established today. Shiba Inu remains a high-risk coin, up to and including total loss.
Until the Nvidia date on Tuesday, two levels count: $0.00000422 on the downside and $0.0000045 on the upside. In between lies the range in which the short side pays funding without earning on the price. If you hold SHIB or want to buy it, you can proceed in this order:
(As of November 12, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
