Silver price is trading just under $60 per ounce, stuck in a range that has frustrated both bulls and bears. After peaking above $120 in January, the metal has essentially been cut in half. F
Silver price is trading just under $60 per ounce, stuck in a range that has frustrated both bulls and bears. After peaking above $120 in January, the metal has essentially been cut in half.
For stackers who bought near the top, the pain is real. For those waiting to add to their positions, the current channel is starting to look like an opportunity.
According to Harry, the owner of a coin shop featured on the Silver Dragons YouTube channel (440,000+ subscribers) , the silver price has been trapped in a narrow band between the high $50s and low $60s. Nothing seems to move it off that range. But that is exactly what makes this moment interesting for physical buyers.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, even though three governors voted for a hike. For precious metals, that is the second-best outcome after an actual rate cut. No rate hike means less pressure on non-yielding assets like silver and gold.
Harry noted that the market saw a modest 81-cent bounce following the decision, calling it “digestible” compared to the wild $6 daily swings that make stacking maddening. A steady climb, he argued, is healthier than explosive moves that leave everyone dizzy.
That slow grind higher, however, is not guaranteed. The Fed left the door open for future hikes, and markets are still pricing in a 63% probability of a September move. If that happens, silver could get dragged lower again.
JPMorgan Global Research expects silver to average $81 per ounce in 2026, more than double its 2025 average. In February, that seemed plausible. But by July, the bank had already slashed its forecast to $60-$65 for the rest of the year, citing weaker industrial demand and cooling investor interest.
So here is the problem. The bank’s official forecast still points to $81 for the full year, but silver is currently trading at $58 – well below that average. For JPMorgan to be right, the metal would need to rally sharply before December. Harry was skeptical.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts Where Silver Price Could Go in August
The silver market is telling two different stories. On the paper side, prices are stuck in a channel. On the physical side, Harry’s shop has been running low on inventory.
For months, there was a healthy balance between buyers and sellers. But with prices down, fewer people are willing to sell at a loss. “Unless you’re in a desperate straight where you’ve got to sell regardless of price, you’re not going to sell on a big dip,” Harry explained. Meanwhile, “smart buyers” have been scooping up discounted silver, forcing dealers to replenish stock.
Harry even ordered new silver eagles, buffalo rounds, and bars for the first time in months – not because he expects a pump, but because a shop with empty shelves does not stay in business for long. He acknowledged that buying inventory is a gamble. Prices could drop further between the order date and delivery, turning a profitable sale into a loss.
Harry said the silver price could break out of the channel if physical demand continues to outpace supply. The Fed’s decision not to hike rates is a step in the right direction, but a rate cut would be the real catalyst.
Central banks are buying massive amounts of gold, with China and India leading the charge. If that trend spills over into silver, the metal could see renewed upward pressure. Gold has already outperformed silver this year, holding up much better than the 50% crash in silver. “Gold, the perennial winner in precious metals, is really doing well right now,” Harry noted.
Adrian, one of Harry’s colleagues, voiced skepticism about JPMorgan’s motives. “I’m a little bit skeptical that their predictions are pure,” he said. The suspicion that banks manipulate silver prices is not new. Whether or not it is true, the lesson for stackers is the same: have your own plan.
“Don’t worry about what Chase Morgan or whoever, whatever bank says about anything,” Adrian said. “Just have your own plan, be your own stacker, be your own person and be your own bank”.
Silver’s price action this year has been ugly, but the physical market tells a different story. Dealers are struggling to keep inventory. Central banks are accumulating. The Fed is at or near the end of its hiking cycle. Those are the ingredients for a recovery, just not an overnight one.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
The post Silver Price Prediction: JPMorgan Says $81 – Here’s the Problem With That appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
