More than 70 million Americans are getting closer to finding out how much their Social Security checks could increase in 2027. The official number hasn't been announced yet, but current infla
More than 70 million Americans are getting closer to finding out how much their Social Security checks could increase in 2027.
The official number hasn't been announced yet, but current inflation data are pointing toward a larger raise than beneficiaries received this year.
AARP currently estimates the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment at 3.6%, up from the 2.8% COLA for 2026. That forecast could still change because September's inflation reading has not yet been incorporated into the final calculation.
What Would a 3.6% COLA Mean?AARP estimates that a 3.6% adjustment would add roughly $75 per month to the average retired worker's benefit.
That would work out to approximately $900 more over a full year, before considering factors such as Medicare premiums.
But 3.6% is still only an estimate.
Social Security calculates its COLA using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Specifically, it compares the average CPI-W during July, August and September with the corresponding third-quarter average used for the previous COLA.
That makes the September inflation report particularly important.
Why a Bigger Raise Isn't Necessarily Good NewsA larger COLA sounds positive, but there's a catch.
Social Security increases benefits because consumer prices have increased. A higher adjustment therefore usually reflects greater inflation pressure on retirees rather than a sudden increase in their real purchasing power.
Healthcare, housing, food and energy costs can also move differently from the CPI-W used to calculate Social Security benefits.
The Social Security Administration says 2026's 2.8% adjustment applies to nearly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries, while millions of SSI recipients also receive inflation-adjusted payments.
For 2027, however, beneficiaries still have one major number to wait for.
September inflation will complete the three-month window used for the calculation. Until then, 3.5%–3.6% should be treated as a forecast—not the official Social Security COLA.
