Solana has experienced a sharp decline in value in recent weeks amid ongoing market volatility. Analysts point out that SOL’s fall is linked both to unfavorable technical signals and a signif
Solana has experienced a sharp decline in value in recent weeks amid ongoing market volatility. Analysts point out that SOL’s fall is linked both to unfavorable technical signals and a significant drop in trading volume. With the price now 65 percent below its latest high, many experts caution that the downward trend may not be over yet.
Technical analyst MooninPapa, who closely tracks Solana’s price action, emphasized that although support lines were tested several times, a major support broke in November 2025 and reclaiming this level now looks unlikely. The long-term support that had held from December 2020 through December 2022 finally gave way last year. Since then, SOL has been stuck in a sideways range for around 16 to 17 weeks, with many experts suggesting the pattern resembles a bearish flag—a warning for further downside risks.
In previous similar patterns, Solana managed to climb above its 50-day moving average a few times, only to lose those levels shortly after. Each time, after a brief sideways consolidation, a new local low followed.
In February, the price rebounded at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $68.76, briefly giving investors hope. Nevertheless, MooninPapa cautioned that this move does not indicate a definitive bottom. In his view, should the 0.618 level fail, the next key support is at the 0.5 Fibonacci zone near $45.60. Additionally, there’s an unfilled fair value gap that could pull the price down to $21.93.
This fair value gap originates from Solana’s rapid rally between $22 in October 2023 and $123, a surge that left part of the price movement thinly traded and not fully corrected to the downside. While a dip to $20 remains a theoretical possibility, the analyst considers the $30–$32 area to be a more realistic floor, aligned both with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and support from the Trend Break Out (TBO) indicator.
Mini glossary: A fair value gap in technical analysis refers to price regions where little trading occurred, leaving a gap between areas considered fairly valued. These gaps often act like magnets, with prices tending to revisit and fill them in future trading activity.
The weakness in SOL is not limited to just price action. Weekly trading volumes have plummeted from $6 billion in May 2025 to just $2.3 billion recently, signaling reduced interest in the market.
Technical indicators further confirm the bearish trend. The on-balance volume (OBV) indicator remains below its moving average with continued bearish signals, while the TBO indicator has maintained a clear short position since December 2024, with no signs of reversal so far. Other analysts also highlight $72 as a critical support area.
The relative strength index (RSI) recently hit a historically low reading of 16.26. Though the subsequent bounce offers some short-term relief, experts caution this is not yet a strong buy signal, but rather a warning of a potential recovery at best.
Analysts warn that any new retreat in Bitcoin could accelerate the selloff in Solana as well. Following heavy losses in the meme coin frenzy, it may also take time for investor confidence to return. MooninPapa outlined his own investment approach as follows:
Posting on X, MooninPapa shared that he is not currently holding SOL, and will only reconsider entry if prices drop further.
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