Key Takeaways Rejected near $96 earlier this week November 5 candle closed just above 200-day SMA RSI at 31.29 versus 27.55 on October 30 0.618 retracement near $85 sits below SOL’s October 3
SOL’s October 30 dip, which came the day after the record Binance hack, set the late-October low that this week’s sell-off has now undercut.
Solana daily SOL/USDT technical analysis chart for November 6.
Since early October, the pullback from that peak has moved inside a descending channel, and the October 30 dip ended at the channel’s lower rail, close to the 0.5 retracement around $92.
Buyers used that low to lift SOL toward the upper rail early this week, but the rally turned near $96. On November 5, a wide red candle erased the bounce, cut back through the $92 area and closed just above the 200-day SMA at $89, a line SOL has held above since its August breakout. Today’s session opened near $89, dipped briefly under the average and recovered to an intraday high near $91. At the time of the chart, with about half the session left, SOL traded around $90, up $1 or 1.1%.
On its own, losing the 0.5 retracement looks bearish. The channel explains why sellers ran out of room at $89. Its lower rail marks how far the downtrend has stretched in the short term, and each leg inside the channel has ended near that line. This week the rail ran into the rising 200-day SMA, so a channel floor and a long-term trend average now sit on top of each other.
That overlap won’t last. The rail slopes lower with every session while the 200-day SMA edges higher, so the two lines separate within days. For now, the zone around $89 is the strongest base the channel has offered for a mean-reversion bounce, but that setup has a short shelf life.
The 14-day RSI reads 31.29, just above the 30 oversold line and 1.30 points under its signal line at 32.59. On October 30, it fell to 27.55. If today’s close keeps the RSI above that level after a lower price low, SOL would have an early bullish divergence at the channel floor. Until the candle closes, the reading can still change.
Volume gives no verdict yet. Roughly 743,000 SOL had traded with half the session left, and the close will show whether buyers matched the selling behind the November 5 candle.
The $89 ladder
Where today’s candle settles against the 200-day SMA decides which way the ladder moves.
Climbing out ↑
Rung 3Near $99–100A move out of the channel runs into the still-rising 100-day SMA, tucked just beneath the 0.382 retracement and the round number.
Rung 2$95–96A daily close back over the midpoint puts the upper channel rail on the table.
Rung 1Near $92The first obstacle for any rebound is the 0.5 retracement, former support that now pushes back from above.
Pivot$89The 200-day SMA and the lower rail share this level today. The climb starts if buyers carry SOL above the average into the close, volume stands up to the November 5 sell-off and the RSI crosses back over its signal line.
Slipping through ↓
Rung 1200-day SMAA daily close under the average strips away the first support, though the sinking rail may still sit below price at that point.
Rung 2Lower railA second close beneath the channel floor wipes out the double-support setup.
Rung 3Near $85The 0.618 retracement, roughly 6% under the current price, is the shelf that held back July and August trading until the August breakout.
Still true either way
Any rebound remains a move inside a falling channel, and the 50-day SMA bending lower at $108, just beneath the 0.236 retracement near $109, keeps the medium-term trend pointed down. Under the $85 area, the 0.786 retracement near $74 marks the July–August base, with the June origin of the rally below it.
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