Solana price prediction: $30.3 million out of the SOL ETFs in five trading days: what to watch now

What is documented: the seven US spot funds on Solana gave up a net $30.3 million over the five trading days to October 22, and on October 22 not one of them recorded an inflow. Our assessment follows further down: the sum itself is small for a market capitalised at close to $60 billion, and it is the absence of any offsetting entry that stands out.

Solana trades at $101.83 on Saturday morning, measured on the last trade on the Coinbase exchange; Kraken shows $101.80 at the same moment. That is 2.6 percent below the level of 24 hours ago, when trading opened at $104.50. Where the price can point over a horizon of months is set out in our Solana price prediction.

$30.3 million in five trading days: the numbers on the SOL ETFs

For the trading day of October 22, the data service SoSoValue reports a net outflow of $8.515 million across all US spot funds on Solana. The industry service Tokenpost puts the same day at $8.9 million; the gap comes from different rounding and different cut-off times at the two providers. We give both figures rather than smoothing one of them away.

The weekly total is what counts. Tokenpost adds the five trading days to October 22 up to minus $30.3 million. For comparison: for the week of October 12 to 16 the same data provider reported $25.52 million of outflows, and at the time that counted as the highest weekly figure since the funds launched. Eight days later the new figure sits 18.7 percent above it.

A spot fund is a vehicle that actually holds the coin instead of tracking it through futures contracts. If an investor redeems shares, the fund has to hand over or sell the SOL behind them. That is precisely why an outflow bites differently from a change of mind in the futures market: real tokens change hands.

BSOL and GSOL carry the outflow, five funds stand still

The outflow of October 22 is not spread evenly. Two products carry it on their own:

• Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL): $5.7182 million out in a single day. That is the largest individual figure and accounts for two thirds of the daily total.
• Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL): $3.2163 million out. Cumulative net inflows into this product stand at around $160 million.
• VSOL, FSOL, TSOL, SOEZ and MSOL: no flow in either direction.

That five of the seven funds show no movement at all on a trading day says more about the situation than the size of the outflow does. The day before, on October 21, the balance was even slightly positive at $585,300, and there too only one provider booked anything. The demand side is not negative. It is absent.

Why a staking ETF cannot sell its SOL straight away

That the outflow is largest at the staking product BSOL has a technical consequence which does not arise with Bitcoin funds. A staking ETF locks the SOL it holds into the network in order to earn the network reward. Locked SOL is not available for sale at once: freeing it means deactivating the stake first, and under the Solana protocol that only takes effect at the end of the current epoch.

An epoch is the settlement period of the Solana blockchain in which the rewards are allocated. We measured how large that locked share has become on October 23: our analysis of epoch 1066 found 74.12 percent of the circulating supply staked. For the funds that means a redemption order placed today may not reach the spot market until a day later.

The mechanism pushes the selling pressure back rather than removing it. An outflow booked on Thursday can arrive as a sale in the market on Friday or over the weekend. A missing price reaction on the booking day is therefore no proof that the outflow had no effect.

Last week’s record lasts eight days

The second thing worth a look is the cumulative holding, because it shows the direction over weeks instead of over days. On October 16 the cumulative net inflow of all Solana funds since launch stood at $1.57 billion, on October 19 at $1.56 billion, and the reading for October 23 is $1.532 billion. In the space of a week, $38 million has disappeared from the overall balance.

Net assets of the funds have fallen over the same period from $1.676 billion to around $1.608 billion. That decline has two causes at once, and reports often mix them up: money is flowing out, and the price of the SOL held is falling. With 589 million tokens in circulation and $101.83 per token, Solana is capitalised at around $60.0 billion. The funds hold about 2.68 percent of that.

The fund holding melts in instalments rather than in one fall: $38 million less cumulative net inflow within a week.

The fund holding since October 18

For regular readers the comparison with our own reading from six days ago says more than any snapshot. On October 18 our analysis of annual issuance put the funds’ holding at $1.56 billion. The same figure today is $1.532 billion. The price was above $107 then; today it is $101.83.

One level from our calculation of October 20 has been answered since as well: back then the picture hung on $107.51. That level has gone, the price sits 5.3 percent below it and has not won it back. Readers following the series can keep score of which arguments held and which did not.

Solana price at $101.83: the levels between $100.32 and $109.62

The relevant levels come out of this week’s price data, not out of round numbers. On the downside the first catch is $101.60, Saturday’s intraday low; the price sits barely above it. Below that comes $100.32, the low of the past 30 days. Only 1.3 percent separates those two values, which is why a break of the daily low lands at the monthly low fast.

On the upside two values are justified. Saturday’s intraday high is $105.11. Considerably further away runs the 50-day line, the average of the last 50 daily closes, at $109.62. Solana trades 7.1 percent below it. On our calculation from the daily candles on the Coinbase exchange, the 100-day line sits at $96.42 and the 200-day line at $88.27; the long-term uptrend is therefore not broken, the medium-term one is.

The monthly high of $124.93 is 18.5 percent away. That span is the real frame for the debate about fund flows: as long as no fresh inflows arrive, the price lacks the buyer who could carry it above the 50-day line.

The US funds are mostly off limits to German retail investors

Here comes a point that is regularly missing from international reports on SOL fund flows: the seven products whose outflows this article describes are as a rule not available to a German retail investor at all. The reason is the key information document required by the European PRIIPs regulation. A broker may only distribute an investment product to retail clients if that document exists in the relevant national language, and US issuers do not usually produce it for their funds.

Existing positions may still be held and sold in that case; buying more is not allowed. The realistic exchange route in Europe therefore runs through exchange-traded products, meaning the ETPs and ETNs that are approved here. Which routes exist, and how to recognise an approved product, is set out in our overview of the crypto ETF in Germany.

The US figures still matter for the price picture, for a simple reason: they move the spot market on which a German investor buys too. To acquire SOL directly you need a trading platform that lists the coin and works under European supervision; the terms differ considerably, so a look at our comparison of crypto exchanges is worth it before the first purchase.

Holding period under section 23 EStG: December 31, 2026 is the date that counts

In Germany a tax difference sits between a fund share and a directly held coin that weighs more than any question of fees. Crypto assets held directly as private assets fall under section 23 of the German Income Tax Act, the rules on private disposals. After more than twelve months of holding, the gain on a sale stays free of income tax. Sell within the year and the personal tax rate applies, with an exemption limit of 1,000 euros per person per year that works on an all-or-nothing basis.

A share in a fund or a security does not carry that clock. Gains from it count as investment income and are taxed at 25 percent withholding tax plus the solidarity surcharge, around 26.375 percent in total, however long the share sat in the account. For products with a delivery claim the classification is disputed in the specialist literature; we pass that on as a contested question, not as settled law.

The date that matters now is December 31, 2026. The draft bill of the Federal Ministry of Finance of September 30, 2026 would move crypto assets from section 23 to section 20 of the Income Tax Act and tax gains at 25 percent regardless of the holding period. It is meant to apply only to crypto assets acquired after December 31, 2026. None of it is settled: the federal cabinet did not adopt the draft on October 14, 2026, and on October 8 the Bundestag rejected a motion of different content from the Greens parliamentary group by 445 votes to 132. We track the current state in our overview of the crypto holding period and its reform.

The acquisition date decides: under the draft, SOL bought up to December 31, 2026 still falls under the old clock.

Our assessment: it is not the outflow that weighs, but the missing offsetting entry

From the newsroom’s point of view the sum of $30.3 million is no reason for concern taken on its own. The amount comes to a good 0.05 percent of Solana’s capitalisation and sits far below what passes through the spot markets on an average day. It also speaks in that direction that 2.68 percent of the circulating supply sits in these funds, so the holding was never the driving force behind the price.

What strikes us about the figures is something else: on two consecutive trading days only a single provider reported any entry at all. Five of the seven funds stood still on October 22. That points to institutional new money not flowing into Solana at the moment, and without that demand the price lacks exactly the buyer that would have to win back the $109.62 of the 50-day line.

Against it stands the time frame. Five trading days are a short stretch, the previous week contained a record outflow as well, and the price is still holding 1.5 percent above the monthly low of $100.32. No statement about a trend can be derived from that; the picture only becomes solid once the coming trading days show whether the $100 zone attracts buyers. We assess the situation, we recommend neither a purchase nor a sale, and a total loss remains possible with crypto assets.

SOL ETFs at $1.532 billion: without inflows the buyer is missing

1. Read the inflow balance, not the daily release. A single daily figure of $8.5 million says little. What carries information is whether the cumulative net inflow of $1.532 billion keeps falling in the coming days or turns. If part of your holding earns a network reward, a look at our comparison of staking platforms pays off first, because reward and lock-up both depend on the provider.
2. Record the acquisition date. For every position the date counts, not the feeling. Buy today and you are before December 31, 2026 and, under the draft as it stands, still covered by the old clock. Which tool documents acquisition dates and FIFO order reliably is shown by our comparison of crypto tax software.
3. Note the two levels. $100.32 as the monthly low on the downside, $109.62 as the 50-day line on the upside. As long as the price swings between those values, the development of the funds is a pointer to demand and not a signal for a breakout.

(As of October 24, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)