Solana trades at $111.84 on Monday midday, or 99.94 euros, up 2.2 percent over 24 hours. The real news of the day, though, is not in the price but in the chain's revenue: over the past seven
Solana trades at $111.84 on Monday midday, or 99.94 euros, up 2.2 percent over 24 hours. The real news of the day, though, is not in the price but in the chain's revenue: over the past seven days the applications on Solana took in $99.6 million in fees, 35.3 percent less than in the week before. The price lost only 7.3 percent over the same period. This gap between willingness to pay and valuation is the subject of this forecast, and it decides whether the 20-day line at $117.05 stays within reach this week.
For holders in Germany one concrete consequence follows: anyone with SOL in the portfolio can use the two levels of $109.21 and $117.05 as a frame for limit orders today instead of waiting for a decision on direction. Which of the two gives way first hangs on numbers anyone can look up.
The daily high stood at $113.22, the daily low at $109.17. Trading volume across all exchanges added up to $2.43 billion and market capitalisation to $65.90 billion. Solana therefore sits 7.3 percent below where it stood a week ago, but 10.0 percent above the level of 30 days ago. The figures come from CoinGecko, as of October 12, shortly before 9 a.m. UTC.
More interesting than the daily reading is the position between the moving averages. From the daily closes of the past 90 days, three levels emerge that recur throughout this forecast:
The 30-day high stands at $122.08, the 30-day low at $96.87. Over 90 days the range runs from $71.89 to $122.08. Solana is therefore moving in the upper third of its quarterly range, but below the monthly high.
On a blockchain, fees are what revenue is in a set of accounts, and they show what users are actually willing to pay. According to data from DefiLlama, the applications on Solana took in $11.24 million over the past 24 hours, $99.6 million over seven days and $467.3 million over 30 days. The weekly figure is 35.3 percent below the previous week, the daily figure 5.8 percent below the day before.
The daily series makes the path clearer than any percentage:
Day Fees across all applications on Solana October 2 $18.75 million October 5 $16.75 million October 7 $14.31 million October 9 $13.91 million October 10 $11.94 million October 11 $10.75 millionFrom $18.75 million to $10.75 million in nine days is 42.7 percent less. To be looked at separately are the chain's own pure transaction fees, meaning what users pay for a transaction to be included in a block. That item stood at $753,342 over 24 hours, 13.7 percent below the comparable figure of the previous week. The two numbers measure different things: the large item contains the revenue of trading venues and token platforms, the small one only the fee for block space.
The connection is more technical than it sounds, and it can be explained in three sentences. On Solana, 50 percent of every transaction fee is burned and the other half goes to the validator that built the block. Added to that are priority fees, which users pay voluntarily to stand at the front of a crowded block, as well as payments from trading around the ordering of transactions, known in the industry as MEV.
These three items together are the pay from which validators fund their servers and from which stakers receive their yield. If they fall by a third, the part of the staking yield that does not come from newly created tokens but from real demand shrinks. That is the link to the price: the smaller the share of real revenue in the yield, the more the appeal of staking hangs on the chain's inflation, and inflation dilutes existing holders.
The supply provides the yardstick. According to a direct query of the Solana network, 635.66 million SOL exist in total, of which 589.11 million circulate freely. The chain stands in epoch 1,055 and has processed 559.08 billion transactions so far. A fall in fees of $8 million a day corresponds, at this supply, to roughly $0.0000136 of lost revenue per circulating SOL per day, or about $0.005 a year. The number is small, but it works through expectations: anyone valuing Solana as payment infrastructure calculates with fee revenue, not with daily closing prices.
The chain keeps processing blocks at a 200-millisecond rhythm, yet users' willingness to pay is falling.
The daily low of $109.17 came in four cents below the 50-day line. The price therefore touched it and left it upwards immediately, and that is exactly what makes it the reliable level for this week. As long as daily closes stay above $109.21, last week's slide is a correction inside the uptrend that began at the quarterly low of $71.89.
Below it a zone without support begins, running to the 30-day low at $96.87. Between those two values there is no moving average and no multiple high of the past three months, and therefore no chart-based reason for a decline to slow. Anyone working with a stop order has a gap of 11.3 percent ahead of them below $109.
On October 6 the question in this slot was whether the level at $117 would hold. SOL traded at around $120 at the time, the 20-day line sat at $117 and counted as support. Six days later the answer is unambiguous: the level has given way, the price fell as far as $109.17, and the same $117 line now lies above the price. Support has turned into resistance, at a nearly identical value of $117.05.
In between came two pieces of news that explain the decline. Stablecoin reserves on Solana fell by 6.4 percent, and the inflow streak of the Solana ETFs ended after 14 weeks with an outflow of $24.8 million. Both pull out capital that would have generated fees. The collapse in fees is therefore not an isolated event but the trace of those outflows in the chain's numbers.
Beyond the chart, what is traded on the chain is worth a look. The volume of decentralised trading venues on Solana stood at $1.25 billion over the past 24 hours and $12.88 billion over seven days. The weekly figure is 27.0 percent below the previous week. The capital locked in Solana applications, known in the industry as total value locked, amounts to $6.29 billion; seven days ago it was $6.73 billion, 30 days ago $5.90 billion.
That produces a differentiated picture. On a monthly view there is more capital on the chain than at the start of September, on a weekly view 6.5 percent less. Trading cools faster than locked capital flows out, and fees fall faster than both. The order holds the clue: speculative activity disappears first, then the capital.
From the newsroom's point of view, the situation at Solana is split in two, and the evidence points in different directions. In favour of stability: the 50-day line at $109.21 held to the cent on Friday, locked capital at $6.29 billion sits above the level of early September, and the price at $111.84 is 10 percent above where it stood a month ago. Against a quick return above $117 stands the fee series: 42.7 percent less revenue in nine days, alongside trading volume 27 percent lower. A price that holds while the chain's revenue falls by more than a third is becoming more expensive, measured against what is actually earned on the chain.
What follows from that: the most likely development of the coming days is a sideways move between $109 and $117, until fees either rise again or the 50-day line breaks. What argues against it: if new inflows into the Solana ETFs arrive, the price can take the $117 without anything changing in the fees, because ETF purchases happen on the spot market and generate no transactions on the chain. This is not a buy or sell recommendation but a placing of the levels. A total loss is possible at any time with crypto-assets.
Both directions can be pinned to verifiable values rather than to the price targets of outside research houses:
Long-term price targets from investment houses sit considerably higher, but they are no yardstick in this situation, because such targets describe years rather than weeks and were set at different fee levels. Anyone quoting them has to name the date and the author as well.
Holding period, tax threshold and staking income decide in Germany what is left of a gain on SOL.
Since the European crypto regulation MiCA, trading venues need authorisation to serve retail clients in the EU. For buying SOL that means in practice: an authorised exchange states its licence and its supervisory state, keeps client money separate and publishes a fee schedule. The spread between buying and selling price is the item many underestimate; at $111.84 per SOL, a spread of half a percent already costs 56 cents per unit. Anyone buying regularly therefore compares not only the order fee but also the spread and withdrawal costs. Which providers charge what is shown by our comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
After the purchase comes the question of custody. SOL on an exchange sits in the exchange's name, SOL in your own wallet in your own name, with the key as your responsibility. For amounts beyond a few hundred euros a hardware wallet is the more robust route, not least because it supports staking directly.
Solana is secured by validators, and anyone who deposits SOL receives a share of their revenue. This is exactly where the fee decline bites: the part of the yield that comes from transaction fees and MEV shrinks with the 35.3 percent from the weekly tally, while the part from newly created tokens remains. Anyone comparing returns therefore looks at the composition, not only at the percentage. The providers' terms are in the comparison of staking providers.
On tax, the one-year holding period under Paragraph 23 of the German Income Tax Act applies in Germany to the sale of crypto-assets: hold SOL for longer than a year and you pay no income tax on the gain. Within the year gains are taxable, but stay tax-free up to the threshold of 1,000 euros per calendar year; once it is exceeded, the entire amount is taxable. Staking income counts separately as other income with a threshold of its own, 256 euros. The details on the treatment of crypto-assets, including the duties to cooperate and keep records, are set out in the letter from the German Federal Ministry of Finance of March 6, 2025.
Practical consequence for today: anyone who bought in October 2025 at considerably lower prices reaches the one-year mark in the coming weeks. The purchase date for each position is therefore a number that matters more on a sale between $109 and $117 than the level itself.
The situation can be worked through in three steps, each with a concrete number:
(As of October 12, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
