Three Things to Know Solana slid to a fresh monthly low as spot ETF investors kept pulling money out. SOL now trades beneath both its 50-day and 200-day averages, a bearish shift for the long
Solana broke below last week's 30-day low on Friday, extending a slide that started soon after its Alpenglow upgrade went live. Faster settlement has failed to draw buyers back.
The break matters because fund flows and onchain activity are both weakening at the same time. Oversold readings hint that a relief bounce could come. Traders now want to know whether buyers can reclaim the 200-day average or whether sellers press toward the summer lows.
Solana's Alpenglow consensus upgrade went live on Oct 21. It cut transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, one of the fastest settlement times among major blockchains. The market shrugged. SOL traded near $101 on Oct 25. It then closed at $89 on Nov 5, its lowest level in a month.
ETF demand has dried up. U.S. spot Solana funds took in nothing from Nov 2 to Nov 4. They then lost about $1.2 million on Nov 5. Outflows grew to $25.1 million the next day. Net assets have shrunk from $1.73 billion on Oct 9 to around $1.31 billion.
DeFi data adds to the pressure. Base, the layer-2 network built by Coinbase, held $5.82 billion in DeFi deposits on Nov 7, according to DefiLlama. Solana held $5.24 billion. That gap weakens the network's case as the leading home for onchain finance.
SOL now sits about 70% below its $293 record. Its market value of roughly $52.6 billion ranks seventh among cryptocurrencies. Another ETF outflow above $25 million would signal that big holders are still selling.
Solana (SOL) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView
SOL changed hands near $87 on Friday, flat over the past 24 hours. The quiet day hides a clear break. Price has slipped through the 30-day low that buyers defended last week, and that floor has now given way.
Moving averages show the damage. A moving average tracks the mean closing price over a set number of days, and traders use it to judge the trend. SOL now trades below its 50-day average near $100. It also sits under its 200-day average around $97.60.
This longer line matters most. Many funds and longer-term traders treat it as the dividing line between a healthy market and a weak one. SOL rested on that average until recently, using it as support. Now the same line works as a ceiling.
That shift turns the long-term picture bearish. Buyers would need to reclaim the 200-day average before anyone can call the trend repaired. Until then, rallies toward it are likely to meet sellers.
The losses have built up over weeks. SOL is down about 8% over the past seven days. Over 30 days, the drop reaches roughly 20%.
Each bounce has faded, and each low has come in under the one before. Sellers have held control since late October.
SOL's daily RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, has dropped to about 29. Readings under 30 count as oversold. That means selling has run hard and fast, and short relief bounces often start from this zone.
An oversold reading alone does not mark a bottom. Strong downtrends can keep RSI pinned low for days or even weeks.
Other signals still favor the bears. The MACD, a tool that compares short and longer price averages, remains below its signal line. In plain terms, momentum is still pointing down. Trend strength readings also confirm a real trend, and sellers are the ones leading it.
Buyers need momentum to turn before any bounce can last. Until that happens, oversold can simply stay oversold.
The nearest support sits near $74, the August low and the last spot where buyers stepped in with force. A move there would mark a drop of roughly 15% from current prices.
Losing that floor would leave SOL exposed. The data shows no clear support below it, so sellers would face little resistance on the way down.
Overhead, the first barrier is the 200-day average, which gives that level extra weight. A daily close back above it would undo much of the recent breakdown and ease pressure on longer-term holders.
The next hurdle comes around $104. Clearing it would bring the 50-day average zone into view. Buyers would need several strong sessions to get there, and current momentum offers little sign of that yet.
Two outcomes look most likely, and each has a clear line that would prove it wrong.
Faster finality has not brought fund money back, and the chart reflects it.
Short sellers face their own risk. Oversold markets can snap higher without warning, and a sharp squeeze could trap traders who joined the selling late.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
