SpaceX Stock Slides to Record Low as Big Week Approaches SpaceX stock is having a rough summer. The ticker SPCX closed at $112.20 on July 30, down slightly from the day before. Earlier in the
SpaceX stock is having a rough summer. The ticker SPCX closed at $112.20 on July 30, down slightly from the day before. Earlier in the week, shares touched $107.10, a fresh record low since the company went public.
That drop comes even after a successful Flight 13 launch. Good news from the rocket side has not been enough to lift the stock.
Two big events are now on the calendar. Earnings land on August 4, and a large share lockup expiry hits on August 6. Together, they could decide where SPCX heads next.
SpaceX debuted at $135 on June 12. Shares then jumped to an all-time high of $225.64 just four days later, on June 16.
Since that peak, the stock has dropped roughly 50%. It now sits below its own IPO price too, trading nearly 20% under where it started.
The market cap tells a similar story. SpaceX briefly touched a $3 trillion valuation, passing both Amazon and Microsoft at the same time. That figure has since shrunk to about $1.48 trillion.
That is a loss of roughly $1.5 trillion in paper value. For comparison, that lost amount is larger than Tesla's entire current market cap of $1.22 trillion.
What Is the SPCX Share Lockup and Why Does It Matter?On August 6, about 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale. That is roughly 20% of restricted stock held by employees and early investors.
At today's prices, that works out to close to $100 billion worth of stock that could hit the market. And this is only the first of eight planned unlock events, with nearly 4 billion shares set to become tradable through January 2027.
Big unlocks like this often bring extra selling pressure. Investors who have been holding shares since before the IPO may choose to cash out once they are able to.
What Does the SPCX Technical Chart Show?The stock is trading inside a clear downward channel. Chart watchers call this a descending pattern, marked by lower highs and lower lows over time.
Right now, SPCX is consolidating between roughly $111 and $116. That kind of sideways move usually means selling pressure has eased for the moment, even if the bigger trend stays weak.
Shares are also trading below their 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs. When a stock sits under all of these moving averages, it usually points to a bearish setup.
A close above $116 could open the door toward $120 to $125. A break below $111 could send the stock down toward the $107 to $100 zone instead.
Scenario
Trigger Level
Potential Target
Bullish breakout
Close above $116
$120–$125
Bearish breakdown
Close below $111
$107–$100
Range-bound
Between $111–$116
Sideways consolidation
Morgan Stanley has kept an Overweight rating on SPCX, along with a $300 price target. That target sits far above where the stock trades today.
The firm's note said this earnings print is less about hitting exact numbers and more about what management says on the call. Investors want directional comments on Starship timelines, compute deployment, and new Grok and Cursor model releases.
Estimated numbers for the quarter include revenue near $6.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA around $2.0 billion, and an adjusted loss of $0.35 per share. Consumer Starlink subscribers are pegged at 12.0 million, with average revenue per user near $65.50.
Sentiment among investors leans cautious for now. Morgan Stanley noted that more than two-thirds of recent investor meetings came away bearish on SPCX through year-end. Views over a 12- to 18-month window were far more mixed.
Could a Tesla-SpaceX Deal Change the Picture?There is also talk that Tesla may separate its China business ahead of a possible deal involving SpaceX. The idea would be to create a firewall between Tesla's Chinese operations and SpaceX's sensitive US defense contracts.
As per a Bloomberg tweet, Reports say some Tesla executives have been told to prepare for this move, with options including a spinoff, sale, or closure of the China unit under discussion.
Elon Musk has spoken about a "convergence" between his companies before, though he has not directly addressed a merger on Tesla's own earnings calls.
The two companies already work together in several ways. SpaceX also folded Musk's AI company, xAI, into the business back in February, adding another layer to how investors read these headlines.
The next week is a big test for SpaceX stock. Earnings on August 4 will show whether the business is growing as fast as investors hoped when the stock first listed.
Two days later, the lockup expiry could add fresh supply to a market that has already been selling off. If a large chunk of newly unlocked shares hits the market at once, it could push SPCX toward the lower end of its range.
On the other hand, strong commentary on Starlink growth or compute plans could help the stock hold its current zone, or even push it back toward $120.
For now, the $111 to $116 range looks like the level to watch. A clean break in either direction will likely set the tone for SpaceX stock heading into the rest of the year.
DisclaimerThis article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices are volatile and can move sharply in either direction. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
