SpaceX stock is back in the spotlight this week. Shares closed at $138.74 on August 10, up 4.2% on the day. That's the first close above its $135 IPO price since July 16. Traders are watching
SpaceX stock is back in the spotlight this week. Shares closed at $138.74 on August 10, up 4.2% on the day. That's the first close above its $135 IPO price since July 16.
Traders are watching the stock closely right now. It has bounced about 32% off its recent low of $104.83, hit on August 3. This price prediction looks at the chart, the news, and what could come next.
Shares gained ground for a third straight session on Monday. The move came alongside a broader rally in Elon Musk-linked names, with Tesla (TSLA) also rising 1%.
Yahoo Finance data shows the stock trading between $130.17 and $139.24 during the day. Volume was heavy, with over 166 million shares changing hands, well above the average daily volume of 122 million.
The 52-week range sits between $104.83 and $225.64, showing just how volatile shares have been since going public.
Metric
Value
Closing Price (Aug 10)
$138.74
Daily Change
+4.23%
Previous Close
$133.11
Day's Range
$130.17 - $139.24
52-Week Range
$104.83 - $225.64
Market Cap
$1.829T
Volume
166,024,902
Avg. Volume
122,024,902
1-Year Target Est.
$231.40
A few different stories are feeding into the rebound.
First, there's the AI angle. ARK Invest's Cathie Wood pointed out that AI inference costs are dropping fast, close to 99.99% a year by her estimate. She said this trend helps frontier labs, and named SpaceX's AI efforts as one beneficiary alongside OpenAI and Anthropic.
Second, SpaceX's cloud computing business is getting attention. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate that cloud deals with Anthropic, Google, and other customers could bring in roughly $45 to $50 billion.
That's a big chunk of the company's stated goal of hitting $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by year-end.
Third, xAI's numbers are turning around. The company swung from a $609 million adjusted loss to a $1.1 billion gain, helped by compute contracts with Anthropic and Google. xAI made up close to 83% of SpaceX's first-half capital spending.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said the company's AI compute bets could pay back in under a year, though Morningstar expects the wider AI business to take closer to a decade to turn a real profit.
This is one of the bigger questions hanging over the stock right now.
ARK Investment Management believes Tesla and SpaceX could announce a merger before the end of 2026. ARK's chief futurist, Brett Winton, said an announcement looks likely this year, even if the deal itself doesn't close right away.
Winton argued that both sets of shareholders would come out ahead if the two companies combined. The sticking point is price. SPCX may need to offer a premium to win over Tesla shareholders, and how big that premium is remains unclear.
Tesla's China business adds a wrinkle. SpaceX holds major U.S. defense contracts, so mixing that with Tesla's Shanghai operations, which shipped 93,579 vehicles in July, raises regulatory questions.
Musk has already pushed back on reports that Tesla would spin off its China unit to make a merger easier.
ARK's research team also flagged robotaxis as the bigger long-term value driver for Tesla, more than its factory output. They don't expect much robotaxi revenue from China anytime soon due to local rules and competition.
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: Chart Levels To WatchLooking at the 1-hour chart, the stock broke out of a long-term descending channel. That kind of pattern often shows up when a downtrend starts turning into a recovery.
Price reclaimed the $133 resistance zone, which lines up with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
The stock is now trading near $138, and RSI sits around 74, which points to strong momentum but also overbought conditions in the short term.
Upside targets, if $133–$136 holds as support:
$150 as the first target
$165, matching the 0.5 Fibonacci level
$178–$180 in a stronger rally, near the 0.618 retracement zone
Downside risk:
If the breakout fails and price slips back under $133, a retest of the $125–$128 support zone looks possible before buyers try again.
SpaceX Stock News: Other Developments This WeekAway from the charts, SpaceX also settled fraud charges brought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission against Adit Ventures Management on August 10. The case involved pre-IPO investments tied to companies including Klarna and SpaceX itself.
In a separate deal, VinSpace will launch its satellites on a SpaceX Transporter rideshare mission in 2027. VinSpace is handling the research, development, and operation of the satellites, which will support in-house technology demonstrations.
Final ThoughtsShares have shown a sharp recovery over the past week, moving from a low near $104 back above the IPO price of $135. The AI compute business, cloud deals, and merger speculation with Tesla are all playing a role in sentiment.
The chart shows a bullish structure for now, but RSI near 74 suggests the stock could cool off before making a fresh push higher. As always with young, high-volatility listings like this, near-term swings in either direction remain possible.
DisclaimerThis article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Price predictions and technical analysis are not guarantees of future performance. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
