SpaceX stock price prediction is back in focus this week. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) slipped below their $135 IPO price and touched a fresh 52-week low near
SpaceX stock price prediction is back in focus this week. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) slipped below their $135 IPO price and touched a fresh 52-week low near $122 before a small bounce.
The move came after a rough stretch for the stock. A failed Starship launch attempt, growing worries about profitability, and a heavy IPO lock-up schedule have all weighed on sentiment.
Still, not everyone is backing away. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought 147,805 shares of SPCX on Friday, according to trade filings shared by Ark Invest Tracker.
SPCX closed at $123.99 on July 17, down 5.43% on the day. That's a steep drop from its $135 IPO price and far below its 52-week high of $225.64.
The stock's overnight price ticked up slightly to $125.71, a gain of 1.39%. Trading volume came in around 83.7 million shares, well above the stock's average volume of 129.7 million over recent sessions.
Market cap sits at roughly $1.633 trillion on an intraday basis, based on data pulled from Yahoo Finance.
Three main factors are pressuring the SpaceX stock price right now.
First, Starship's 13th flight test was delayed after an automatic abort on July 16. The abort was caused by an engine ignition failure just seconds before liftoff.
SPCX has fallen nearly 15% since that failed launch attempt. SpaceX now says it is targeting Thursday, July 23, for the next try.
Second, investors are worried about valuation and profitability. SpaceX's market cap values the company at more than 50 times sales, based on 2025 revenue of roughly $18.6 billion.
Some analysts, including writers at The Motley Fool, have flagged that multiple as hard to justify without stronger near-term earnings, even with a strategic acquisition aimed at boosting AI operations.
Third, and maybe most important, is the unlock calendar. A chart circulating among traders shows SPCX is down about 43% from its IPO high, and more share unlocks are scheduled through the rest of the year.
When Does the SpaceX Stock Lockup Expire?This is one of the most searched SpaceX stock questions right now, and for good reason.
From late July through August, up to 20% of insider shares could become eligible for sale. That's the first of several waves. Here is the fuller unlock timeline traders are watching closely.
Date
Event
Unlock Size
Cumulative Total
Aug 11
Wave 1
+20%
~25%
Sep 24
Unlock
+14%
~39%EARNING
Oct 25
Unlock
+14%
~53%
Nov 7
Q3 Unlock
+28%
~60%
Each unlock event lets more employees and early holders sell their shares. That can add selling pressure, especially if it lines up with other bad news.
SpaceX has not confirmed its first public earnings date yet. Analysts widely expect it around August 6, 2026, which is close to when the lock-up period is expected to loosen further.
What Do Analysts Predict for SpaceX Stock in 2026?Wall Street's SpaceX stock price predictions vary a lot right now, and that split is worth knowing about.
Citi analyst John Godyn has set a 12- to 18-month price target of $200, with a longer-range bull case that goes as high as $900 if Starship delivers on its cost promises.
Other analysts covering the stock after its June IPO have offered year-end 2026 targets ranging from around $150 up to $220, depending on how much weight they put on Starlink revenue growth versus current losses.
On the bearish side, some independent analysts argue SPCX could slide toward $100 by the end of 2026 if the stock's roughly 50x-plus sales multiple keeps compressing.
That's a wide range. It reflects just how new and hard to value this stock still is, since SpaceX only began trading in June and has yet to report a full quarter as a public company.
SpaceX Stock Technical Analysis: Key Levels To WatchThe daily chart shows SPCX in a clear downtrend since its IPO, with price action tracking below the 20, 50, and 100-hour EMAs.
Key levels right now:
IPO price: $135 (already broken below)
52-week low: $122.12 (touched intraday)
Next support zone: $116 to $121
Deeper support: $100, a round psychological number
The RSI on the hourly chart sits near 25, which is in oversold territory. That doesn't guarantee a bounce, but it does suggest the recent selloff has been sharp and fast.
SPCX Crypto Market: Volume and LiquidationsTrading activity around SPCX tokens (SPCX/USDT) on crypto exchanges has been heavy too.
Binance leads with $153.44 million in volume, followed by OKX at $56.74 million and tradeXYZ at $34.74 million. Bitget, MEXC, Bybit, and smaller platforms round out the rest.
Liquidation data shows the pain has mostly hit short positions over the past day.
In the last 24 hours, shorts on SPCX were liquidated for $1.06 million, while longs saw about $1.02 million in liquidations.
Over a 4-hour window, long liquidations were much heavier at $405.72K compared to $5.29K in shorts.
Long/short ratios on Binance and OKX both sit well above 2, meaning more accounts are positioned long than short right now.
The path forward for SPCX likely depends on two things: how Thursday's Starship launch goes, and how the market absorbs the upcoming share unlocks.
A clean Starship flight test on July 23 could help stabilize sentiment in the short term.
A second failure, on the other hand, may push the stock toward the $116 to $121 support zone, or even down to the $100 level some traders are watching.
Ark Invest's recent buying suggests at least some institutional players see value at current prices. So does Citi's long-range bull case, though that $900 target is explicitly framed as a multi-year outcome, not a near-term one.
With unlocks running from August through November, the stock could stay volatile for months regardless of which camp turns out to be right.
This is not a guaranteed outcome either way. Markets can move quickly on news, and SPCX has already shown how fast sentiment can shift.
DisclaimerThis article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
