Spotify removed more than 500,000 artificial streams from a chart-topping song after suspicious prediction market bets raised concerns that traders had manipulated the data used to settle the
Spotify removed more than 500,000 artificial streams from a chart-topping song after suspicious prediction market bets raised concerns that traders had manipulated the data used to settle their contracts.
Prediction markets are platforms where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events, such as elections, weather or entertainment rankings. The contracts pay out if a specified result occurs.
The suspicious activity involved “Earrings,” a 2024 track by American singer-songwriter Malcolm Todd.
The song’s streams rose nearly 70% between June 27 and June 28, helping it reach the top of Spotify’s US chart, according to reports.
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The surge occurred as traders placed bets on whether Todd would secure a US Spotify No. 1 before the end of June.
Kalshi had reportedly assigned the outcome a 2.5% probability one week earlier.
A Kalshi market linked to the most-streamed Spotify song in the US during June drew about $3 million in trading volume, Bloomberg reported. The market was settled before Spotify removed the artificial streams, meaning traders who backed Todd’s song had already been paid.
Source: KalshiThere is no indication that Todd or his team were involved in the suspected manipulation.
Spotify asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo and clarify that neither prediction market had a partnership with the streaming platform, Bloomberg reported.
Spotify spokesperson Laura Batey said the company had systems in place to identify fraudulent activity.
“All streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation,” she told Wired.
“Spotify has best-in-class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams, and we don’t pay out associated royalties.”
Kalshi said it was investigating the matter and was in contact with Spotify. The platform has since added a disclaimer stating that its Spotify-related markets are not endorsed by the streaming service.
The incident is not the first example of a prediction market facing concerns over an underlying data source.
In April, France’s national meteorological agency filed a complaint after a weather sensor at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport recorded brief, unexplained temperature spikes.
The readings were used to resolve Paris weather contracts on Polymarket, where one trader reportedly earned about $34,000 across two bets.
Polymarket later changed the reference location for its Paris temperature markets from Charles de Gaulle Airport to Le Bourget Airport.
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