CryptoQuant’s demand indicators suggest Bitcoin’s recent rebounds lack sustained spot-market support. Circle’s expanding AI-payment activity highlights growing stablecoin utility outside cryp
Stablecoins are becoming more active as payment instruments just as the cryptocurrency market faces a shortage of fresh buying power.
According to CryptoQuant’s November 10 report, USDT market capitalization declined by $6.6 billion over 60 days, a contraction more than twice the size of the December 2022 redemption wave following FTX’s collapse.
Shrinking USDT supply signals tighter stablecoin liquidity across crypto markets.
Meanwhile, Circle reported more than 52.5 million USDC transactions involving AI agents over 90 days. The company said USDC accounted for 99.99% of transactions in the measured agent-payment category.
Agents are already paying with USDC.
Over the last 90 days, agents sent more than 52.5M transactions in USDC. That’s 99.99% of agentic transactions.
USDC is issued by regulated affiliates of Circle. See Circle’s list of regulatory authorizations at https://t.co/6EKu6yx6YO. USDC is a dollar referenced virtual asset, backed by reserve assets, that allows you to transact with a value designed to track the U.S. dollar.
— USDC (@USDC) November 9, 2026
The figures describe two different markets: one struggling to attract capital into digital assets, the other finding new uses for existing digital dollars.
CryptoQuant’s findings coincide with declining capitalization across the wider stablecoin market.
Figures attributed to DefiLlama placed total stablecoin supply at approximately $289.81 billion on November 10, down 4.57% over 30 days. That implies a reduction of roughly $13.9 billion from the beginning of the period.
USDC also contracted, with its circulating supply falling approximately 3.76% to $70.38 billion.
The simultaneous decline matters because it weakens the argument that investors are simply exchanging Tether for Circle’s token. Both major issuers experienced reduced outstanding balances.
The measurements cover different periods, however, and cannot be combined into a single estimate of capital outflows.
Redemptions may move funds into conventional bank deposits, other financial instruments or different parts of the cryptocurrency market. What matters for near-term trading conditions is whether sufficient dollar liquidity remains accessible to support new purchases.
Shrinking stablecoin balances can reduce that capacity, particularly when exchange activity is already showing signs of weaker demand.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin indicators reinforce the liquidity warning.
The firm’s 30-day apparent demand measure contracted by 284,000 BTC, its sharpest deterioration since March 2025. The metric estimates market absorption through changes in Bitcoin supply dynamics rather than directly counting exchange orders.
U.S. spot-market pricing has also remained weak.
The Coinbase Premium Index recorded 30 consecutive negative daily readings, indicating that Bitcoin traded at a relative discount on Coinbase compared with the offshore market used in the index.
Such a persistent discount is consistent with subdued U.S. buying pressure. It does not isolate institutional transactions, but it provides an independent market-price signal alongside CryptoQuant’s on-chain estimates.
Recent rebounds have offered limited reassurance. In a separate market assessment, CryptoQuant identified short covering as a contributor to upward price movements while underlying spot activity remained negative.
Short liquidations can produce sharp rallies without attracting equivalent new investment. Once forced buying subsides, prices become more dependent on voluntary spot demand.
That leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed selling unless market absorption improves.
Circle’s reported transaction figures point toward a potentially significant change in stablecoin usage.
Automated applications increasingly require payment infrastructure for purchasing computing resources, accessing APIs and exchanging digital services. USDC can facilitate these transactions through programmable wallets and payment protocols.
The reported agent-payment activity translates into approximately 583,000 transfers per day.
Circle’s third-quarter financial results provide a broader measure of network activity. The company reported $13.9 trillion in on-chain USDC transaction volume, representing 49% annual growth.
Management also said USDC accounted for 79% of stablecoin transaction volume despite representing approximately 27% of circulating supply.
Those figures suggest that USDC moves through blockchain networks more frequently relative to its outstanding balance than its supply share alone would indicate.
The economics of automated payments help explain why.
An AI application can make hundreds of small purchases using the same wallet balance. Each payment contributes to network activity, while the underlying dollars may circulate repeatedly between service providers and customers.
For Circle, that creates opportunities to expand payment infrastructure and distribution without depending entirely on cryptocurrency exchange demand.
For investors evaluating Bitcoin liquidity, however, transaction frequency is a different measure from the amount of capital available for spot purchases.
The reported 52.5 million transactions establish activity within Circle’s measured agent-payment category, not the amount of new USDC issued or the total value of those payments.
Historical contractions in CryptoQuant’s apparent demand indicator have sometimes coincided with local Bitcoin bottoms. That precedent makes the current weakness worth monitoring, but it does not establish that selling pressure has peaked.
Three developments would provide stronger evidence of improving conditions:
Stablecoin supply returns to growth. Sustained increases in USDT and USDC circulation, particularly alongside exchange inflows, would suggest that more dollar-denominated liquidity is becoming available to market participants.
Bitcoin apparent demand turns positive. Improving absorption would indicate that buyers are taking up available supply. A recovery supported by spot purchases would be more convincing than one driven primarily by derivatives liquidations.
The Coinbase Premium Index recovers. A sustained positive reading would signal stronger relative buying on Coinbase, helping confirm whether U.S. demand is participating in a broader market rebound.
The indicators need not improve simultaneously, but agreement between them would provide a stronger recovery signal than price appreciation alone.
The divergence has implications beyond Bitcoin.
Stablecoin issuers increasingly serve two markets with different economic drivers. Cryptocurrency trading depends heavily on investor positioning, collateral availability and market liquidity. Automated payments depend on transaction costs, network reliability and integration with digital services.
Growth in one market does not necessarily produce immediate demand in the other.
Circle could continue expanding its payment network even if cryptocurrency trading activity remains subdued. Conversely, renewed Bitcoin accumulation could emerge before AI-payment activity makes a meaningful contribution to outstanding stablecoin supply.
For now, CryptoQuant’s indicators point to weak buying conditions despite growing evidence that stablecoins are finding uses outside trading.
The next important change for Bitcoin will be visible in net issuance and spot-market demand, rather than the number of payments processed by automated applications.
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