It is often said that the crypto market takes the stairs up and the elevator down. On Thursday morning, it didn’t just take the elevator. It cut the cables as Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $62,
It is often said that the crypto market takes the stairs up and the elevator down. On Thursday morning, it didn’t just take the elevator. It cut the cables as Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $62,000, one of its sharpest short-term drops since February.
The move triggered over $1.5 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours, with BTC accounting for over $800 million and wiping out more than 14% margin in a week and over 20% in four weeks, taking Bitcoin back to levels last seen in February.
This brutally corrects about six months’ gain, after Bitcoin set a new all-time high record at $126,000 last year. The digital gold is now down more than 50% from that high and has lagged equities, with the S&P 500 up around 10% year-to-date while BTC sits roughly 27% lower.
Persistent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows played a central role. A symbolic first Bitcoin sale by MicroStrategy, 32 BTC for about $2.5 million to cover dividends, added to the unease, even though the firm still holds around 843,000 coins.
Interestingly, Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, calls it a “painful” week but holds firm on his $100,000 Bitcoin target for the end of 2026. In his latest note amid the sell-off, he said that when we look back at year-end with Bitcoin at $100k, “this was the buying zone we all wanted.”
Kendrick has revised targets downward multiple times (cutting 2026 forecasts from $150k to $100k earlier this year as demand slowed), yet he maintains conviction. He points to several supportive factors.
ETF holdings have shown relative stability overall. MicroStrategy is likely to resume aggressive buying, consistent with its history. Bullish leverage has already been reduced, meaning fewer positions are left to unwind in future dips.
He sees the main risk as a decisive break below $60,000, which has not happened.
Why Standard Chartered is still bullish on BitcoinStandard Chartered’s stance relies on a strong track record of spotting cycle turns, including calling the end of the crypto winter early. Institutional infrastructure, ETFs and corporate treasuries now provide a higher price floor than in previous cycles.
Longer-term tailwinds remain intact: potential regulatory improvements, stablecoin expansion, and growing use of Bitcoin as a treasury or reserve asset. Capitulation signals such as heavy liquidations, widespread unrealised losses (over half of holders), and exhausted outflows often mark turning points before rebounds.
From current levels around $62,000–$65,000, reaching $100,000 by year-end requires a 40–50% gain. That is well within Bitcoin’s historical post-drawdown rallies. Kendrick’s view prioritises structural demand over short-term noise. Even with slower corporate adoption than hoped, the infrastructure built since 2024 creates a more mature base.
Yet, critics highlight genuine challenges.
ETF outflows expose demand fragility without fresh institutional buying. Macro pressures, geopolitics, competition from AI stocks, and uncertainty over rates have kept risk appetite muted. Some analysts see room for deeper lows toward $50,000–$60,000 if support breaks. Bitcoin’s rising correlation with risk assets has also undermined its “digital gold” role during stress periods.
Still, Kendrick’s perspective focuses on the bigger picture. Supply dynamics favour bulls: liquid Bitcoin supply remains tight. The market has absorbed leverage flush-outs before. If macro conditions ease or risk sentiment improves, the setup for recovery strengthens. He has consistently emphasised that dips like this test resolve but do not change the underlying adoption story.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research This episode shows crypto’s evolution. It is more institutionalised, with ETF flows now a key real-time indicator alongside on-chain data. Corporate holders like MicroStrategy bring both volatility and committed demand. For investors, the move reinforces the value of dollar-cost averaging during drawdowns, keeping leverage low, and maintaining diversification.
Longer term, continued adoption through ETFs, treasuries, and payments should support higher prices. Kendrick’s framework, including ambitious targets out to 2030, rests on these trends. Near term, the $60,000 level is critical. Holding or bouncing from here bolsters the recovery case; a clear break could extend the flush.
In the end, this plunge looks like a necessary clearing of excess leverage and weak hands. Kendrick’s steady $100,000 call reflects confidence in structural tailwinds prevailing over cyclical turbulence. It is a view built for patient capital. Whether this proves the ideal buying zone will be evident by December, but the signs for a rebound are visible to those willing to look past the immediate pain.
