Stock Market Today: S&P 500 and Dow Rise, September Risks Persist

U.S. stocks opened higher Thursday, Sept. 3, as falling Treasury yields and a softer signal from Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller helped the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite advance despite rising oil prices and geopolitical tension.

The Dow climbed about 395 points, or 0.7%, at 9:34 a.m. ET. The S&P 500 gained roughly 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.6%, according to Reuters. The move followed Wednesday’s rebound, when all three major indexes ended three-day losing streaks. 

The early strength comes at the start of a month with a historically difficult record for U.S. equities, adding a seasonal risk factor to an already crowded market outlook dominated by Federal Reserve policy, oil prices and Friday’s August jobs report.

September Has Historically Been the S&P 500’s Weakest Month

Seasonality is attracting renewed attention after The Kobeissi Letter highlighted data showing September has historically produced unusually weak S&P 500 returns.

Citing data going back to 1928, the account said the S&P 500 has declined in roughly 55% of Septembers, making it the only calendar month in which negative returns have occurred more frequently than positive ones over that period. The accompanying Charles Schwab and Bloomberg chart shows an average September return of about negative 1.1%, compared with positive average returns in most other months.

S&P 500 September Seasonality. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X

The Kobeissi Letter also noted that the average September drawdown has been about 4.7%, while weakness has historically been more concentrated in the second half of the month. According to the post, the second half has averaged a 0.9% decline compared with an average 0.2% loss during the first half.

Those figures do not predict what will happen in September 2026, but they underline why traders may be especially sensitive to negative surprises involving inflation, employment, oil or interest rates this month.

Dow Jones History Adds a Sept. 3 Market Reminder

Thursday also marks the anniversary of one of the most significant peaks in U.S. stock-market history.

On Sept. 3, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 381.17, its peak before the Wall Street crash and Great Depression bear market. The index eventually fell to 41.22 on July 8, 1932, an approximately 89% decline, and did not regain its 1929 closing high until Nov. 23, 1954, according to Federal Reserve History. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1920-1954. Source: Ken Tumin (@KenTumin) on X

That 25-year recovery figure refers to the price index and does not include dividends, an important distinction when comparing long-term investor returns. It nevertheless provides historical context as the Dow trades near record territory almost a century later.

Waller Comments Help Treasury Yields Retreat

The immediate driver of Thursday’s stock-market gains was monetary policy rather than seasonality.

Waller said he could support leaving interest rates unchanged at the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting if incoming inflation data confirms that price pressures are cooling. He also left open the possibility of higher rates if inflation strengthens again.

The comments helped reduce rate-hike concerns and pushed Treasury yields lower. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.75%, while the two-year yield slipped to roughly 4.32%. Lower yields can support stock valuations, particularly for technology and other growth companies. 

Nvidia and Snowflake Rise as Broadcom Falls

Technology stocks produced several of Thursday’s biggest individual moves.

Nvidia gained around 2% after announcing a roughly $13 billion acquisition of artificial-intelligence platform Hugging Face. Snowflake surged about 25% after an upbeat revenue outlook, while Broadcom dropped more than 5% as investors reacted to its latest forecast. 

The divergent moves show that AI remains an important market theme, but investors are becoming more selective about earnings expectations and future growth.

Oil Prices and Friday’s Jobs Report Are the Next Tests

Stocks are also contending with another increase in energy prices. Brent crude traded above $96 a barrel Thursday as U.S.-Iran tensions continued to raise concerns about Middle East supply. U.S. crude had risen about 11% for the week, according to AP. 

Higher energy prices matter because they can feed inflation and complicate the Fed’s rate outlook.

Thursday’s economic data were mixed. Revised Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed nonfarm business productivity increased at a 1.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, while unit labor costs rose 1.2%. 

Separately, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July from a revised $71.2 billion in June as exports declined and imports increased.