TLDR Tesla will report third-quarter earnings on October 21, with analysts expecting revenue of $27.88 billion. Tesla stock has fallen about 17% in 2026 despite third-quarter vehicle deliveri
Tesla (TSLA) stock faces an earnings test on Wednesday, October 21, as traders await robotaxi, chip, and SpaceX merger updates. Tesla will release third-quarter results after the U.S. market closes.
Analysts expect Tesla to report adjusted earnings of 43 cents per share and revenue of $27.88 billion. Both figures trail last year’s results. Tesla stock has fallen about 17% this year, despite renewed interest in its autonomous driving plans.
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles during the quarter, topping market estimates but falling 2% from a year earlier. Analysts expect automotive revenue to decline nearly 7%. Polymarket traders assign a 36% probability that Tesla will beat earnings expectations.
Kalshi traders assign 99% odds to both “Cybercab” and “Robotaxi” appearing during the earnings call. Tesla has registered nearly 350 Cybercabs in Austin, although MarketWatch reports only 187 active vehicles. Other automakers are pursuing automation, including Volvo’s expanded Nvidia self-driving partnership.
The probability of management mentioning regulation stands at 91%. Federal safety officials are reviewing whether Tesla’s Cybercab, which has no steering wheel, meets vehicle standards. Traders place the chance of hearing “competition” at 75%, following stronger electric vehicle sales from China’s BYD.
Kalshi puts an 89% probability on either SpaceX or xAI receiving a mention. Musk confirmed Tuesday that independent board committees are reviewing a possible merger. No agreement exists. Kalshi traders place only 42% odds on hearing “merge” or “merger.” The talks follow Tesla’s recent Roadster revival, another project linked to SpaceX technology.
“Terafab” carries 92% odds. Musk aims to produce its first test chip by mid-2027 and start volume production in 2028. “Samsung” sits at 68%. Tesla has a $16.5 billion agreement with the company to produce AI6 chips for its computing systems.
“Megapack 3” has a 66% probability of appearing on the call. Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of storage last quarter, nearly 10% more than a year earlier. Separately, Eos reported rising battery shipments as U.S. energy storage production expanded. Analysts project Tesla’s energy revenue at $3.7 billion. Energy division chief Mike Snyder left last week as Tesla expanded battery manufacturing in Texas.
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