The Ongoing Bitcoin Rally: What Does It Indicate?

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Recent analyses by CryptoQuant based on on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin has moved past its early bullish phase into a full-fledged bull market. This transition mirrors historical precedents where, out of five instances, four saw continued price rises. Notably, the influx of nearly $2.98 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over seven trading days reinforces the sustained buying activity in the market.

Indicators Signal a Bull Market Ahead?

The answer is affirmative. On September 26, Axel Adler Jr. shared insights on the X platform, focusing on the ratio of the 30-day moving average of the adjusted MVRV indicator to its 365-day counterpart. This ratio climbed above its 365-day moving average on August 20, hinting at an early bull market, with Bitcoin priced at $71,255 at that time.

The MVRV analysis compares Bitcoin’s market value with the realized value reflecting investors’ average acquisition costs. This aids in assessing whether the market participants are generally in profit or loss.

During a 31-day period considered as the early bull phase, Bitcoin rose by 13%. The short-term MVRV average surpassed the annual average when the ratio exceeded 1.0 on September 20. According to Adler, Bitcoin entered its current bull phase at $80,691.

Updated data reveals the ratio now stands at 1.018, with Bitcoin trading at $84,156. Adler emphasizes that maintaining a ratio above 1.0 is crucial to preserve the bullish trend. Data from the past exhibits that in four out of five previous similar transitions dating back to 2012, prices remained above the commencement level of the bull market.

Moreover, ETF inflows continue, with SoSoValue data showing a net influx of $134.47 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 25, marking seven consecutive days of inflows since September 17.

Challenges for Bitcoin Holding Companies?

Indeed, the companies holding Bitcoin are facing downturns. Bitcoin Treasuries reports a decline in the combined market value of the top 50 publicly traded Bitcoin-holding firms, dropping from $150 billion in July 2025 to $67 billion recently. Over the past 12 months, this has equated to a plunge from $124 billion to $57 billion.

• Many firms outlined by Financial Times traded below pre-Bitcoin purchase announcement levels, with 35 firms losing over half their value.
• The strategy relied on companies leveraging their Bitcoin holdings to inflate stock prices for easier fundraising but was derailed as Bitcoin and stock prices fell.
• This negative cycle amplified share dilution, raised financing costs, and prompted some firms to pivot away from Bitcoin accumulation.

Data highlights a critical market shift. According to BitcoinTreasuries, the top 50 corporate Bitcoin holders sold approximately 2,500 more BTC than they acquired in July, marking the first net monthly sale since the Bitcoin reserve trend began. This $160 million net sale signifies a major strategy rethink.

A significant portion of the devaluation is attributed to Strategy, the largest institutional Bitcoin holder globally. This firm’s market cap plummeted by about $79 billion from its peak last year. Although Bitcoin prices fell roughly 30% over the past year to around $78,000, the drop in company stock values surpassed Bitcoin’s own decline.

Eric Benoist from Natixis remarked, “It’s challenging for smaller firms to emulate Strategy’s model of raising funds weekly, reflecting market restructuring through Bitcoin sales and business refocus.”