Why Is Wall Street Moving Tokenization Into Core Markets? Citi expects tokenization of real-world assets to grow from a $17 billion market today to $5.5 trillion by 2030 in its base case, as
Why Is Wall Street Moving Tokenization Into Core Markets?
Citi expects tokenization of real-world assets to grow from a $17 billion market today to $5.5 trillion by 2030 in its base case, as major financial infrastructure firms begin moving blockchain-based securities from pilot programs into production systems. The bank’s forecast range runs from $2.7 trillion in a slower adoption case to $8.2 trillion in a faster-growth scenario. The scale of the estimate reflects a change in where tokenization is expected to develop. Rather than staying focused on experimental private-market products, Citi expects growth to concentrate in mainstream public markets, especially U.S. Treasuries and public equities. The main driver is no longer early crypto adoption. It is the entry of large market infrastructure operators. DTCC plans limited production trades of tokenized securities in July, with a wider platform launch planned for October. Nasdaq is working on a framework for blockchain-based shares, with a possible launch as early as 2027. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the
New York Stock Exchange, also has plans tied to tokenized stocks. That makes tokenization less of a separate digital asset niche and more of a potential upgrade to existing settlement and trading systems. Citi described the shift as a market structure turning point. “When DTCC and the NYSE embed tokenization into capital markets, this marks a tipping point,” the report said.
What Is Driving Citi’s Trillion-Dollar Forecast?
Citi points to 3 forces behind the projected growth: market infrastructure adoption, digital cash rails, and clearer U.S. regulation. The first force is the integration of tokenization into the systems that already process securities trading. If firms such as DTCC, Nasdaq, and ICE build tokenized assets into their core platforms, adoption does not depend only on crypto-native companies. It becomes part of the infrastructure used by brokers, banks, asset managers, and exchanges. The second force is the rise of stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits. Tokenized securities need reliable digital cash for settlement. Without that, markets can issue blockchain-based assets but still depend on slower legacy payment rails. Citi expects standard stablecoins to reach a $1.9 trillion market by 2030, creating the cash leg needed for instant settlement between assets and payments. Stablecoin growth could also create demand for
U.S. government debt. Because stablecoin issuers often back their tokens with Treasury securities and similar liquid assets, Citi estimates that stablecoin expansion alone could generate about $1 trillion in new demand for U.S. government bonds. The third force is regulation. U.S. digital asset legislation is moving forward after the
Senate Banking Committee advanced a key bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14. Clearer rules could reduce the legal uncertainty that has slowed banks and exchanges from committing larger resources to on-chain securities infrastructure.
Investor Takeaway
Citi’s forecast is not built on tokenization replacing financial markets overnight. It is based on large incumbents adding blockchain rails to existing market systems, with stablecoins and tokenized deposits providing the payment layer needed for faster settlement.
Where Will Tokenization Grow First?
Citi expects tokenization to scale first in liquid, standardized markets rather than hard-to-trade private assets. That means U.S. Treasury bills and public stocks are expected to account for the largest share of
tokenized real-world assets by 2030. The bank assumes that 10% of the U.S. Treasury bill market and 3% of the U.S. public stock market will be tokenized by the end of the decade. Even modest retail migration could create a large market. Citi estimates that if 10% of everyday U.S. investors move to digital trading platforms, demand for tokenized stocks could reach $2.6 trillion. Private markets are expected to grow more slowly. Private credit and private equity are each projected to reach about $100 billion globally by 2030. Those markets are harder to standardize because assets are less liquid, pricing is less transparent, and transfers often require heavier legal and operational review. This matters for
investors because the largest tokenization opportunity may not come from exotic crypto-native products. It may come from putting familiar instruments, such as Treasury bills and listed equities, onto settlement systems that allow faster transfer, programmable ownership, and tighter integration between asset and payment flows.
Who Benefits From Parallel Financial Systems?
Citi does not expect legacy systems to disappear quickly. The report argues that old and new financial rails will run side by side for years, creating a period of higher operational cost and uneven adoption. The report compares the transition to electronic toll systems such as E-ZPass. Toll roads did not become fully automated in one step. Operators had to maintain parallel lanes for cash users and automated drivers before electronic tolling became standard. Citi expects a similar phase in capital markets, where traditional settlement and tokenized settlement coexist before wider migration takes place. That transition favors large “structural orchestrators,” meaning banks, exchanges, custodians, and investment firms that can control both the underlying assets and the digital cash used to settle trades. Firms with access to securities infrastructure and payment rails can keep more of the transaction inside their own networks, reducing friction and gaining more influence over how tokenized markets develop. For asset managers, exchanges, and banks, the implication is direct. Tokenization is becoming a market infrastructure question rather than only a product launch question. Firms that can connect regulated assets, custody, trading, and settlement may gain an early advantage, while smaller platforms without control over both sides of the trade may have to depend on larger networks. The 2030 market will likely be hybrid, not fully on-chain. But Citi’s forecast shows that tokenization is moving into the parts of finance where scale already exists: government bonds, equities, settlement systems, and cash rails. That is why the next phase of adoption may be led less by crypto startups and more by the institutions that already run the plumbing of public markets.
