Citrini Research names five DeFi tokens as likely beneficiaries of tokenization. The firm’s largest reported allocations sit outside those five names. Citrini warns that protocol growth does
Citrini Research published a 79-page report on October 8 titled Breaking The Wall, arguing that tokenization and decentralized finance are becoming the settlement layer for AI-driven financial agents. The firm, founded by James van Geelen and followed by more than 260,000 Substack subscribers, places Ondo Finance (ONDO), Aave (AAVE), Uniswap (UNI), ether.fi (ETHFI) and Pendle (PENDLE) among the protocols positioned to collect fees from that shift. Its case rests on revenue and on the rights a token gives its holder, and the report stops short of claiming that wider blockchain use lifts every coin. All five tokens have pulled back from their recent highs in the days around publication, so the distance between the research case and the charts deserves a look project by project.
The public introduction to the report describes software agents that move savings, refinance loans and pick investments on a user’s behalf once they have permission to do so. Today’s financial plumbing runs through intermediaries and closes on weekends, which is a poor fit for software that never sleeps. Citrini points to March 2026, when the Iran conflict escalated over a weekend and traders used Hyperliquid to take positions on crude oil while conventional venues were shut. A crypto derivative is a different instrument from the commodity itself, yet the episode showed demand for markets that stay open.
From there the firm builds a 15-token model portfolio, according to published summaries of the research. The five headline names add up to 29% of it. Derive, Lighter and ether.fi carry the heaviest weights at 10% each, and the list contains no direct Bitcoin position. These are reported target weights, and nothing confirms completed purchases.
Token Role Weight Largest positions Derive DRV Derivatives 10% Lighter LIT Perpetuals 10% ether.fi ETHFI Staking 10% Aave AAVE Lending 9% Smaller headline names Uniswap UNI Exchange 4% Pendle PENDLE Yield trading 3% Ondo ONDO Tokenized assets 3%Reported model weights, Citrini Research. Gold edge marks tokens covered here.
The weighting follows a simple test. A token earns a place when its holders have a claim on what the protocol collects, through fee sharing, buybacks or burns. A busy exchange whose governance token receives none of the trading fees fails that test however fast its volume grows, and the same logic explains why Citrini does not assume Bitcoin or Ether must set new records because more assets move onchain.
Ondo has the most direct link to the thesis and the busiest recent calendar. On September 16 its Oasis Pro Markets unit became the first tokenization platform admitted to DTCC’s Fund/SERV network, the system that handles more than 85% of US mutual fund transaction activity. Eight days later the company launched Intelligent Portfolios, three strategies developed by BlackRock for Ondo and issued as transferable tokens to eligible investors outside the United States. Ondo Private Markets followed on October 5 with notes tied to the performance of a pre-IPO artificial intelligence company. Buyers of those notes get structured exposure, which is a weaker claim than owning the shares.
ONDO/USDT daily chart. Source: Alexander Stefanov on TradingView
ONDO trades near $0.48 after touching roughly $0.60 at the end of September, a decline of about a fifth. The price still sits above both the 50-day average at $0.434 and the 200-day average at $0.393, and the shorter line crossed above the longer one last month, a pattern that usually accompanies an established uptrend. This week’s dip stopped close to $0.44 before buyers returned. An RSI of 54 tells a reader that neither side is in control. A daily close below $0.434 would put the 200-day average in play, while a recovery needs to clear the $0.51 to $0.52 band where the token stalled through early October.
Aave supplies the hard numbers. Its own dashboard put deposits at about $34 billion and outstanding loans at $13.3 billion at the end of September, with 2026 revenue of $83.3 million and net income of $26.2 million so far. Those are protocol accounting figures, and they do not equal cash paid to AAVE holders. Its newest lending markets have reportedly passed $1 billion in deposits. Ether.fi now routes portfolio borrowing inside its app through Aave, which turns the protocol into a back end for consumer products built by others.
AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: Alexander Stefanov on TradingView
The chart is the strongest of the five. AAVE changes hands at about $168, down from an early October peak near $185 and far above a June low under $60. The 50-day average at $143.30 has risen above the 200-day at $121.74, and the price holds a 17% cushion over the faster line. RSI cooled to 58 from readings above 70, meaning the rally shed its overheated condition without breaking the trend. Buyers defended $160 on the latest dip. Losing that level opens a path toward $143, and a close above $185 would extend the advance.
For years UNI was the standard example of a governance token attached to a profitable exchange with no share of its income. That changed in December 2025, when governance approved protocol fees together with a burn of 100 million UNI. More than 125 million tokens voted in favor and 742 against. Follow-up proposals aim to extend fee collection to selected Uniswap v4 pools and to Robinhood Chain. Third-party onchain trackers put recent burns at around 38,000 UNI in a single day, a figure that has not been independently confirmed.
UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: Alexander Stefanov on TradingView
The rally arrived months after the vote and has since partly reversed. UNI climbed from under $2.50 in June to almost $11 in late September, then lost roughly a third of its value in two weeks. It now trades at $7.33, directly on the 50-day average at $7.30. Selling volume rose on the way down. RSI dropped to 41, below its own average of 58, which shows sellers have held the upper hand in recent sessions. If the $7.30 area gives way, the next visible floor is the $6 zone where the token paused in early September, with the 200-day average further down at $5.23. Reclaiming $8 would be the first evidence that the correction has run its course.
Ether.fi announced on October 6 that it plans a US dollar stablecoin, ether.fi USD, with Ethena managing the reserves. Ethena says the platform already holds more than $300 million in stablecoin deposits. The step extends a build-out that started in August and September with tokenized stocks, precious metals, wider fiat payment options and programmatic ETHFI buybacks. The protocol has also been pulling weETH away from EigenLayer restaking, the model it launched with. Its place in the tokenization story is less direct than Ondo’s and depends on which of these products users adopt.
ETHFI/USDT daily chart. Source: Alexander Stefanov on TradingView
ETHFI has moved inside a rising channel since late August, and at $0.688 it sits on the lower edge. The 50-day average at $0.648 runs just beneath that edge, so two supports overlap in a narrow zone that the price pierced briefly this week before closing back above it. RSI at 49 is neutral. A daily close under $0.648 would break the channel and expose the 200-day average at $0.555. Holding it keeps the $0.75 midline and the recent high near $0.82 within reach.
Pendle lets users split an asset into its principal and its future yield and trade the two separately. Its Boros product applies the idea to perpetual futures funding rates, giving traders a way to hedge or speculate on what leveraged positions cost to hold. In September the protocol opened its first yield market on Robinhood Chain, and the sPENDLE upgrade changed how holders take part in protocol economics. New strategies were presented at TOKEN2049 on October 8, though their launch status is unconfirmed.
PENDLE/USDT perpetual, daily chart. Source: Alexander Stefanov on TradingView
PENDLE is the only one of the five trading below its 50-day average. The token fell from about $2.79 in mid-September to $2.10, a drop of roughly a quarter, and this week’s slide carried it under that average at $2.16. The longer trend is intact for now, since the 200-day average sits lower at $1.85 and the faster line crossed above it in early September. RSI at 40 is well under its own average of 52, a sign that sellers have set the pace over the past week. Buyers stepped in near $2.00 on October 8. A daily close under that level leaves little support before $1.85, while a return above $2.16 would put the token back on the side of the trend it held through September.
Token Support Resistance ONDO $0.434, then $0.393 $0.51, then $0.60 AAVE $160, then $143.30 $185 UNI $7.30, then $6.00 $8.00 ETHFI $0.648, then $0.555 $0.75, then $0.82 PENDLE $2.00, then $1.85 $2.16Levels read from Binance charts on October 9, 2026. Technical levels describe past price behavior and are not forecasts.
The supply of tokenized assets is growing faster than the report could document. Securitize put its own NYSE-listed shares on Solana and Avalanche the day it went public in July. Citi researchers in June put the tokenized asset market at a base case of $5.5 trillion by 2030, against roughly $17 billion today, a forecast whose scope covers specific asset categories and should not be read as a figure for the whole crypto market.
Each of those assets could be posted as collateral on Aave or traded on Uniswap, and the yield-bearing ones could be split and priced on Pendle. Whether it gets there depends on obstacles Citrini itself lists: liquidity scattered across incompatible networks, securities rules that restrict who may hold a tokenized share, and smart-contract or custody failures that could keep institutions away. Autonomous agents add a further requirement, since they need dependable identity and authorization controls before anyone lets them move money at scale.
Citrini’s own equity basket offers a sense of proportion. It reportedly gives Securitize a 20% weight and Circle and Coinbase 18% each, yet the firm notes that Robinhood Chain was generating fees at an annualized pace of about $30 million in early October, set against $1.31 billion in Robinhood revenue for the second quarter alone. Onchain activity at a listed broker is still small next to its core business. For the five tokens, the nearer tests are the Uniswap vote on extending fees to v4 pools and Robinhood Chain, and the launch terms of ether.fi’s stablecoin, both of which will show how much protocol income is routed to holders.
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