Trump Eyes Venezuela-Style Oil Strategy For Iran

According to a new statement by Donald Trump, Iranian oil would become a lasting objective of the American presence. The president mentions a US presence in Iran modeled on Venezuela, without presenting any agreement or precise schedule.

In brief

• Donald Trump considers maintaining an American presence in Iran to keep access to the country”s oil.
• The president compares this scenario to the Venezuelan model, whose terms are still uncertain.
• Tensions in the Middle East push Brent and WTI above 100 dollars per barrel.
• The shutdown of the Saudi East-West pipeline and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz increase tensions on global supply.
• No agreement currently defines the conditions for a prolonged American presence in Iran.

Trump conditions the American withdrawal on Iranian oil

On September 13, Donald Trump addressed this possibility during a trip to Ireland. Questioned about the conflict in Iran, he hinted that Washington would extend its commitment to maintain access to the country”s oil resources.

The American president thus stated: “we will eventually leave Iran, unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like in Venezuela”. However, this statement represents a political hypothesis. The White House has released no mechanism likely to allow the Uncle Sam”s country to control or exploit Iranian oil.

The main elements related to this intervention allow measuring its scope but also its limits :

• Trump envisages a US departure from Iran, unless a decision is made to stay for the oil ;
• He compares this scenario to the energy agreement announced with Venezuela ;
• He thinks the war would end in 2026, perhaps after the November midterm elections ;
• He projects a sharp drop in gasoline prices once the conflict ends.

The American president also indicates that Iran regularly sought peace negotiations. Similar claims had already been contested by Tehran. Trump emphasizes that he could only accept the “good deal”, without providing details on the conditions necessary for its conclusion.

The Venezuelan model remains surrounded by uncertainties

The comparison with Venezuela refers to an agreement communicated by Trump at the end of August. Indeed, Washington seeks to guarantee American companies durable access to part of the country”s vast oil reserves.

The project could concern over 65 billion barrels, nearly one fifth of Venezuela”s official reserves, according to published information. American companies would obtain rights on certain fields through private partnerships, concessions, or tenders.

However, the full terms of such an arrangement are not public. According to Venezuelan law, the state has a key role in oil exploitation, which would complicate its implementation.

Trump claims that revenues from Venezuela have already “paid for the war several times”. No figures verifying this claim have been provided. The precedent invoked for Iran thus remains incomplete financially, operationally, and legally.

The crisis pushes oil above 100 dollars

These remarks come as tensions in the Middle East strongly disrupt energy markets. Brent has risen more than 3% to around 108.04 dollars per barrel, while US WTI trades near 103.54 dollars.

The shutdown of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia reinforces fears. This infrastructure can transport nearly four million barrels per day to the port of Yanbu, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Its unavailability threatens about 4% of global oil supply, and repairs would last up to six weeks.

Trade flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also sharply declined. A meeting between Iran and other Gulf countries focused on reopening this strategic route was postponed due to lack of consensus.

Trump states that gasoline prices will “drop like a stone” after the war. Such a drop could depend on the restoration of exports, maritime security, refining capacity, and the duration of Saudi repairs.

No agreement yet allows Washington to stay

Trump”s statements do not define the conditions for a prolonged American presence. They do not specify the fields concerned, the private companies, or the distribution of possible revenues. Iran, a member of the BRICS, has not validated a system comparable to that invoked in Venezuela.

Many indicators will help assess the truthfulness of this scenario. An official proposal from Washington, a public response from Tehran, and an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz would represent tangible first steps.

Meanwhile, the remarks mainly serve to link the American strategy in Iran to energy security. Without a detailed plan, the possibility of “keeping the oil” remains a political intention, not an enforceable decision.