September is ending on a positive note for Bitcoin (BTC) investors this year, delivering a 7.54% return against the average loss of 2.32%. In fact, this September might prove to be the best o
September is ending on a positive note for Bitcoin (BTC) investors this year, delivering a 7.54% return against the average loss of 2.32%.
In fact, this September might prove to be the best one so far in Bitcoin's history, as per CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns, Source: CoinGlass
In contrast, October has historically been one of the best months for Bitcoin investors as it has delivered an average return of 19.92%.
The phenomenon has led to a coinage called "Uptober," which translates to the Bitcoin market having a positive October.
However, there have been exceptions to the rule. Most notably, Bitcoin hit its all-time high (ATH) above $126,080 in early October last year. Everyone thought it was another Uptober until the crypto market faced the Oct. 10 flash crash. It was triggered by President Trump's 100% tariff threat on China, and wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions, the largest liquidation event in crypto history.
Instead of "Uptober", traders were left with "Rektober" last October.
TheStreet Roundtablereached out to crypto experts to ask whether October 2026 will live up to its reputation as "Uptober" or end up being a "Rektober."
Related: Legendary trader who nailed Bitcoin's 2018 crash makes bold new call
Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev said October has the potential to live up to its Uptober reputation, and the current setup arguably tilts in that direction. But a wide range of market-moving factors means it is far from a certainty, he added.
Kalchev is particularly focused on how the Federal Reserve manages inflation and employment. Though he found the August core PCE of 3% YoY, below the expected 3.3%, "encouraging," he is now looking forward to the Oct. 2 employment and Oct. 14 CPI reports for indication on the Fed's interest rate decision in late October.
"Cooling inflation alongside a moderating, but resilient, labor market would strengthen the case for a pause and provide a meaningful tailwind for Bitcoin," Kalchev remarked.
The analyst pointed to "encouraging" market signs, such as the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posting eight consecutive sessions of inflows totaling roughly $3 billion, while BTC gained 9.8% during Sep. 16-29. He interpreted the futures open interest falling 10% as a "healthier" and increasingly spot-supported recovery rather than one driven by speculative leverage.
With roughly 1.86 million Bitcoin held by short-term holders now in profit, it creates a sizable pool of potential sell-side supply. If these short-term holders lock in gains, it adds direct selling pressure and potentially slows the rally, Kalchev warned.
The analyst flagged rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar as factors that could lower Bitcoin demand. A deterioration in geopolitical conditions, renewed inflation concerns, or a more hawkish Fed could push investors toward cash and other defensive assets, he further warned.
Whether October lives up to its reputation will depend on persistent Bitcoin demand being able to absorb profit-taking amid these pressures, Kalchev concluded.
"Uptober has the ingredients, but not the guarantee: if seasonality gets the credit, macro conditions, spot demand and holder conviction will still have to do the work."
Luke Davis, founder and chief market strategist at Bull Market Blueprint, told TheStreet Roundtable he is in the "Uptober camp."
Bitcoin has already demonstrated resilience under tighter monetary conditions the past month, and today’s softer-than-expected core inflation gives that recovery room to extend as expectations for further tightening ease, Davis added.
BTC/USD, Source: DecibelBitcoin was trading at $83,804 at the time of writing, as per Decibel.
