Anthropic’s path to what could be the largest AI IPO in history is no longer being treated as a sure thing. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting an Oct
Anthropic’s path to what could be the largest AI IPO in history is no longer being treated as a sure thing. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting an October Nasdaq listing that could value it near $1 trillion — but recent commentary suggests investor enthusiasm has cooled since that filing.
Anthropic closed a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation just four days before filing its confidential S-1, positioning it as the highest-valued private AI company in history and putting it ahead of OpenAI, which filed its own confidential paperwork days later, according to one investor analysis.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are reportedly leading the offering, which could raise more than $60 billion.
The skepticism isn’t about Anthropic’s growth — annualized revenue reportedly jumped from roughly $9 billion in January to $47 billion by May, a nearly fivefold increase in under six months. It’s about precedent.
Both SpaceX and SK Hynix saw sharp declines after their own recent IPOs, a reminder that even high-demand, high-growth listings can struggle once public markets apply their own valuation discipline rather than the momentum-driven pricing of private funding rounds.
A trillion-dollar debut would also arrive during a week when broader AI-adjacent stocks have already been volatile, with chip and infrastructure names swinging on unrelated news.
Anthropic’s IPO narrative is complicated by just how much of its infrastructure runs on arrangements with companies that are also, in various ways, competitors or counterparties: a $45 billion compute deal with SpaceX, a $25 billion AWS commitment, and now reported early talks to lease $10 billion in compute from Meta.
Public-market investors evaluating Anthropic’s margins will need to weigh how durable — and how favorably priced — those dependencies remain once the company is subject to quarterly earnings scrutiny rather than private negotiation.
There’s also a sequencing question hanging over both companies. Anthropic filed its confidential paperwork first, which gives it a narrative advantage but also means it will absorb the market’s first reaction to audited frontier-AI financials — a reaction that OpenAI, filing days behind, will watch and adjust before setting its own terms. If Anthropic’s debut disappoints, expect OpenAI’s camp to use that data point directly in its own pricing conversations with underwriters.
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