WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Calendar:

, Reports Earnings - Thursday 5. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data - Friday 6. July New Home Sales data - Friday1. ADP Employment Change data - Tuesday 2. Tesla,$TSLA, Alphabet,$GOOGL, Report Earnings - Wednesday 3. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 4. Intel,$INTC

Main news:

• Brent crude jumped 3% to top $90 a barrel - its highest level since early June - after the U.S. military conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, has been severely disrupted, with only four vessels transiting the route on Sunday compared to eight the day prior.

• Bitcoin dipped modestly but remained resilient above $64,000, rebounding from lows below $58,000 earlier in July. Traders are eyeing a potential move toward $72,000 around the Fed's July 29 rate decision, with large options positions - 20,000 call contracts at a $70,000 strike expiring July 31 - reflecting bullish sentiment, while futures markets assign a 75–85% probability of rates staying on hold.

• Gold hovered near $4,000 per ounce under pressure as surging oil prices reignited inflation concerns, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields and raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. ANZ analysts noted that Fed rate hike expectations briefly spiked to 40% probability at the July 29 meeting before settling back to around 10%, with gold expected to find support in the $3,800–$4,000 range.

• Asian and European markets opened cautiously following last week's tech-driven selloff, with the Nasdaq declining 2.9% and the S&P 500 shedding 1.6% on the week. South Korea's KOSPI slid 0.6% on Monday in catch-up trade, extending nearly a 9% plunge last week, as chip stocks including TSMC fell sharply despite record earnings results, reflecting a broader investor reassessment of stretched AI valuations.

#BTC #OIL #Crypto