SpaceX Stock Drops After Starship Launch: SPCX Stock Price Prediction SpaceX stock fell more than 2.16% on Monday, even after Starship reached orbit for the first time. SPCX now trades near $
SpaceX stock fell more than 2.16% on Monday, even after Starship reached orbit for the first time. SPCX now trades near $146.7.
The rocket news was good. The chart looks weaker. Traders are trying to sort out which one matters more.
Analyst Gene Munster says the market is "underappreciating the significance of the launch."
The launch was not the problem. The pressure seems to come from the stock itself.
About 328 million shares became free to trade after the post-IPO lockup ended on Sept. 24. More shares for sale can push a price down.
President Gwynne Shotwell also sold $52.5 million in shares under a pre-arranged plan. Planned sales are common, but traders still watch them.
Shares were near $147.29 at noon ET on Monday, down 0.93%. That was minutes before the splashdown was confirmed.
Starship lifted off from Starbase in Texas. It reached about 170 miles above Earth.
It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. This was the first Starship flight to carry an operational satellite payload.
In a post on X, the official account said Starship achieved orbit on its first attempt and delivered Starlink V3 satellites for the first time.
One engine shut down during the flight. Engineers cut the plan from about 10 hours and six orbits to roughly three hours.
The Super Heavy booster landed in the Gulf of Mexico as planned. The upper stage survived re-entry and splashed down in the Pacific Ocean.
Metric
Data
Recent price
About $146.7
Monday move
Down more than 2.16%
Lockup shares freed (Sept. 24)
About 328 million
Shotwell share sale
$52.5 million
Options max pain (Oct. 2)
$149.00
The new Starlink V3 satellites are more capable than older ones. They carry much more communications capacity.
The flight also gave engineers re-entry and heat-shield data. Starship is key to the company's plan to move beyond Falcon 9.
But the company still has to prove reliable reuse. Both stages must be recovered and turned around quickly.
As per Optioncharts, the Oct. 2 weekly expiry has 298,385 open contracts. That includes 136,842 calls and 161,543 puts.
The put-call ratio is 1.18. Slightly more traders hold puts than calls.
Many traders focus on $150. Around 22,645 call contracts sit at that strike.
Strike
Open Interest
140 Put
13,443
95 Put
13,171
170 Call
11,424
160 Call
10,102
165 Call
8,589
On the 4-hour chart, SPCX trades below its 20, 50, and 100 EMAs. That points to weak short-term and mid-term momentum.
A big red candle followed a small green one. Sellers took control. It did not form a Hammer, since it lacks a long lower wick.
The 23.6% Fibonacci level near $145 is being tested now. A 4-hour close below it could open the way to lower levels.
One chart watcher also noted that SPCX fell out of a large falling wedge last Thursday. It then failed to reclaim the lower edge three days in a row.
Level
What It Means
$156 to $158
Next upside area if buyers win back $149 to $151
$150.98
Major resistance
$146.7 to $149.2
Immediate resistance zone
$145
23.6% Fibonacci, being tested
$140 to $138
38.2% Fibonacci support
$135
Gap some traders want filled
$133 to $131
Deeper retracement zone
Nobody can say where the price goes next. These are only possible paths based on current data.
Scenario
Trigger
Possible Target
Bearish
4-hour close below $144 to $145
$140, $138, then $133 to $131
Neutral
Price stays between $145 and $150
Near the $149 max pain level
Bullish
Sustained move above $149 to $151
$156 to $158
The chart leans bearish while price stays under $149 to $151. The $139 to $141 zone is the first place buyers may show up.
The big bet is on reuse. If Starship can fly again and again, launch costs could fall a lot.
Cathie Wood has argued that even a $1.75 trillion valuation could look cheap if Starship works at scale.
NASA also relies on a human-rated Starship as a lunar lander for Artemis. That adds long-term weight to the story.
This article is for information only. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices are volatile, and you can lose money. Price targets here are possible scenarios, not guarantees. Do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before you invest.
