XRP Bounce Fizzles: Golden Pocket Faces Another Test

Key Takeaways

▪ Wednesday’s rally toward $1.40 fully reversed.

▪ Golden pocket spans roughly $1.24 to $1.26.

▪ RSI near 36, closing in on oversold.

▪ XRP sits 26% below its August peak.

Binance’s XRP/USDT daily chart on TradingView shows the October slide unfolding on far lighter volume than the August and September rallies, with no panic-selling spike so far.

The bounce that did not last

Earlier this week, XRP bounced off the golden pocket, the zone between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracements of its August rally. By Wednesday the move had stretched to about $1.40 before sellers stepped in.

XRP daily price chart. Source: TradingView

They erased those gains over the next three sessions, and Saturday’s drop reached about $1.25 intraday, a touch inside the pocket.

Two of three support layers are slipping

Last week, the pocket had backup from the 100- and 200-day SMAs, which had converged just above it. A daily close beneath them would turn that backup into the first hurdle overhead, only 1% to 2% above the current price.

Support layer October 20 Now 100-day SMA (~$1.29) Holding Lost intraday 200-day SMA (~$1.28) Holding Lost intraday Golden pocket (~$1.24–$1.26) Holding Being tested

Each bounce off the floor is getting weaker

The pocket has now been tested three times since mid-September, and the rebounds it has produced are shrinking. The first lifted XRP by roughly a third. Last week’s managed about 11% before fading.

Test of the floor Low Bounce high Rebound Mid-September ~$1.25 ~$1.66 ~+33% Mid-October ~$1.26 ~$1.40 ~+11% Now ~$1.25 Pending In progress

The highs tell the same story from the other side. Each rally since late September has topped out lower than the one before, while the floor has stayed in the same place. That squeezes price into a narrowing range and puts more and more weight on a single level.

Volume points the same way. The September rebound came on some of the heaviest Binance trading of the autumn, while last week’s bounce drew far thinner activity. With both the October selling and the latest buying running on light volume, neither side has shown real conviction at the floor yet.

Below the pocket, the chart thins out

If the pocket gives way, the next Fibonacci level is the 0.786 near $1.14, about 10% lower and close to where XRP traded in late July. Beneath that sits the August low near $0.99, the starting point of the entire rally.

The ceiling that stopped Wednesday’s rally

Past the two averages, the 0.5 Fib near $1.35 comes first. Above it, the 50-day SMA near $1.41, now curling lower just beneath the 0.382 Fib near $1.43, is the barrier Wednesday’s move could not reach. Clearing all of that would still leave the 0.236 Fib near $1.53, the top of the late-September range that gave way in early October.

Momentum is stretched

RSI has slid to about 36, below its signal line and approaching the 30 oversold mark. Selling looks stretched, but an oversold reading on its own does not mark a turn.

The case for a hold

The 0.618 Fib has yet to fail on a daily close, and the 100-day SMA is still rising. A fast move back above the lost averages would make this week’s drop look like another shakeout at the same floor.

Potential Moves (not a forecast)

XRP sits on the golden pocket, with the 100- and 200-day SMAs at $1.28–$1.29 overhead.

Hold and recover: A daily close back above $1.29 in the coming days could revive the bounce and bring the 0.5 Fib back into play.

Break: A daily close below $1.24 before the end of October could crack the pocket and expose the 0.786 Fib.

Bigger picture: XRP still trades about 28% above its August low, and holding the pocket would keep the August uptrend technically intact.

Outside the chart, the next scheduled potential market mover is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, at 2:00 PM ET.

How we read this chart

Daily XRP/USDT candles from Binance on TradingView, captured at 16:32 UTC on October 24, 2026, with the day’s candle still open. Daily candles close at 00:00 UTC.

Fibonacci levels run from the mid-August low to the August spike high. Indicators used: the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages, the 14-day RSI and Binance trading volume.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile.

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